Canada Markets

Statistics Canada Reports Ending Stocks for 2017/18

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart plots the July 31 stocks for select crops as reported for 2018 and over the previous 10 years (2008-2017). Total stocks of the reported grains increased by 2.7% over the past year to a three-year high. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Of the grain stocks reported by Statistics Canada on Thursday, stocks rose by 327,000 metric tons or 2.7% to 12.369 million metric tons, with significant increases seen in stocks of canola, lentils and dry peas. The largest year-over-year declines were seen in stocks of wheat, durum and barley.

Commercial stocks fell by 848,000 mt, or 13.6%, year-over-year for the grains reported in this report to 5.406 mmt. The most significant change was seen in a 839,000 mt reduction in wheat stocks (excluding durum) as well as a year-over-year decline in commercial durum stocks of 185,000 for an all-wheat decline of 1.024 mmt held in commercial storage.

An increase in farm stocks of grain were estimated to offset the decline reported in commercial storage, with farm stocks of reported grains increasing by 1.174 mmt or 20.3%. The largest increases in farm stocks were reported for canola at 1.013 mmt or 239%, lentils by 501,000 mt or 224% and dry peas at 218,000 mt or 134%.

Farm stocks of all grains increased only modestly in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, by 154,000 mt and 142,000 mt respectively, while a much larger increase in Alberta of 874,000 mt or 40.9% was reported, largely due to an estimated 625,000 mt increase in canola stocks year-over-year and a 450,000 mt increase in wheat (ex. durum).

Implied disappearance or demand for the four-month April through July period shows a year-over-year decline for barley of 12.1%, while year-over-year declines were also noted for lentils of 20.2%, 9.6% for peas and 13.5% for durum. A significant year-over-year increase in oat disappearance was noted for this period of 25.4%, while wheat disappearance (ex durum) increased by 4% and canola disappearance increased by a modest 1.4% from the same period in 2017/18.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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