Canada Markets

What Grains Are Producers Delivering?

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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As of week 11, or the week ending Oct. 16, cumulative deliveries of wheat, durum and oats were below both 2015 and the average levels for this period, while canola, pea and lentil deliveries were above both 2015 and the average pace (five-year average for all grains except for lentils which are based on a three-year average). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

As of week 11, or the week ending Oct. 16, total deliveries of principal field crops into licensed facilities totals 12.565 million metric tons, 2.8% higher than the same period in 2015 and 17.6% higher than the five-year average. This is despite the delayed harvest which has some 20% of the crop left waiting for favourable harvest weather.

As seen on the attached chart, producer deliveries of both wheat and durum are well below both 2015 and the average volume seen delivered over the past five years. As of week 11, producers had delivered 3.595 mmt of wheat (excluding durum), which is 12.7% below last year and 9.3% behind the five-year average. Commercial stocks of wheat in the licensed system are also well below average, with 2.082 mmt reported as of week 11, which compares to the five-year average of 2.695 mmt (excluding in-transit stocks). As well, the overall quality in the commercial system has declined given this fall's poorer grade spread, with No. 1 and No 2 CWRS making up 55.4% of the terminal wheat stocks in week 1 of this crop year, while falling to 46% as of week 11.

As of week 11, producers had delivered 694,400 mt of durum into the licensed system, down 28.3% from the same period last year and 22.4% below the five-year average. Week 11 commercial stocks of durum were reported at 463,400 metric tons, well below the 818,700 mt reported for the same week last year as well as below the five-year average of 725,540 mt. Like wheat, the quality of terminals stocks is also slipping, with 43.7% of the stocks grading in the top-two grades in week 1 while falling to 33.2% in the most recent week.

Attractive prices have helped encourage aggressive deliveries of canola despite the harvest delays, with 4.087 mmt delivered by producers as of week 11, just marginally higher than the same period last year while 17% higher than the five-year average. Commercial stocks were reported at 1.484 mmt, just 2.9% below the same week last year while 22% higher than the five-year average.

Also of interest on the accompanying chart is the aggressive nature of both pea and lentil deliveries into the bulk, licensed handing system. Dry pea deliveries by producers total 1.772 mmt as of week 11, 41% higher than the same period last year and 86.5% higher than the five-year average. Lentil deliveries totaled 712,900 mt in the first 11 weeks, 65% higher than the same period last year and 160% higher than the five-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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