Canada Markets

A Look at Current Year Exports

By Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
This chart looks at the most recent export data for selected crops as compared to AAFC forecasts for 2015-16 (blue bars) and compared to the same period last year (red bars). Exports for the first six commodities (canola through flax) are based on week 26 CGC data as of Jan. 31, while the final four are based on data reported by StatsCan as of Dec. 31. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

The most recent export sales data from both the Canadian Grain Commission, which reports export through licensed facilities only, and Statistics Canada indicates that not all crops are equal when it comes to benefitting from the weaker Canadian dollar.

The accompanying chart shows cumulative exports through licensed facilities as a percentage of this year's 2015-16 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecast (blue bars) as well as a percentage of the same period in the 2014-15 crop year. Of the random crops selected, canola, wheat, durum, barley, oats and flax are based on data which takes us to the mid-point of the crop year, the end of week 26 or as of the week ending Jan. 31. The other four, soybeans, peas, corn and lentils, are based on Statistics Canada data as of the end of December.

Canola exports as of week 26 total 4.778 million metric tons, 50.3% of the current 9.5 mmt AAFC target, or in other words, just slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach this target. Canola is one of five of the selected crops where exports are ahead of the same period last year, currently 113.2% of the volume exported in the same period last year. Movement will be watched closely, with week 25 and week 26 exports being two of six weeks where volumes slipped below 100,000 metric tons, well below the weekly volumes needed to stay on the steady pace needed to reach the target.

At the mid-point of the crop year, wheat exports (excluding durum) are reported at 47.7% of AAFC's crop year target, at 8.343 mmt. AAFC recently revised crop year exports of wheat by 500,000 mt to 17.5 mmt. Wheat exports are slightly higher than last year, at 102.4% of last year's licensed exports.

Durum exports in the same period are reported at 2.334 mmt, ahead of the pace needed to reach the recently revised export target of 4.3 mmt for 2015-16. Durum exports are one of the five crops shown where exports are below year-ago volumes, with cumulative volumes as of week 26 at 85.7% of the volume shipped in the same period last year.

Barley exports are pegged at 526,300 mt, just 29.7% of the AAFC target, which was recently reduced to 1.775 mmt from last year's 2.461 mmt. Year-to-date exports are 69.7% of the same period last year.

Oat exports as of the mid-point of 2015-16 are reported at 541,600 mt, just 24.6% of AAFC's current 2.2 mmt export target for the crop year. At the same time, year-to-date exports are at 98.2% of the volume shipped as of the same date last in 2014-15, which could bode well for the balance of the crop year.

Flax exports as of Jan. 31 are reported at 186,000 mt, or just 23.3% of the 800,000 mt target set by AAFC. At the same time, cumulative exports as of week 26 are 89.3% of the exports achieved in the same period last year.

Statistics Canada reports show that soybean exports as of the end of December, or the first four months of the soybean marketing year, are indicated at 2.695 mmt, or 65.7% of the 4.1 mmt target set by AAFC, with data for two-thirds of the crop year yet to come. Export volumes are on their way to yet another crop year record, currently 115.3% of year-ago levels.

Dry pea exports as of the end of December were reported at 1.612 mmt, or 58.6% of the 2.750 mmt export target set by AAFC. This represents a volume which is 91.7% of the volume exported in the same period in 2014-15.

Corn exports as of the end of December are reported at 170,000 mt, which represents 24.3% of the estimated export volume of 700,000 mt. This volume is 105.3% above the same period last year.

Lentil exports as of the end of December are reported at 1.714 mmt, 71.4% of the current AAFC estimate of 2.4 mmt. This volume also represents 159% of the volume exported in the same period last crop year.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(AG)

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