Canada Markets

Week 19 data from the Grain Statistics Weekly as of Dec. 15 showed weekly exports at 93,340 metric tonnes, above the prior four-week average of 63,533 mt and the highest volume shipped in the past 10 weeks.

Year to date, exports at 1.649 million metric tonnes remain below the 1.7342 mmt shipped as of week 19 in 2012, although does remain above the steady pace required to meet the 4.5 mmt export target currently set by Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC). Note that this study excludes shipments from unlicensed facilities as well as the export of semolina. This is seen on the attached chart, with the red line just slightly above the black line, which represents the steady pace required to meet the target.

Producer deliveries for the 2013/14 crop year total 1.804 mmt, approximately 100,000 mt higher than year-ago levels and the highest level of deliveries as of week 19 seen in CGC data going back to 2003, which is the oldest historical data provided on-line.

The November issue of the Exports of Canadian Grain and Wheat flour report released by the CGC indicates the largest reductions in export volumes are seen in sales to Algeria, Belgium and Morocco. Year-to-date sales to Algeria, at 74,700 mt, are 76% below the 311.7 mmt exported in the same period last year. Belgium exports, at 94,700 mt are 61% below year-ago levels, while sales to Morocco, at 250,400 mt, are 35% below year-ago levels.

Sales to Italy are slightly higher than year-ago levels at 275,100 mt, while sales volume to the United States has increased 72% to 166,400 mt.

DTN's National Durum Index continues to drift sideways, with Thursday's closing price averaged over a number of points in the northern states ending at $6.75 per bu. This continues to look attractive when compared to the $4.85/bu average price calculated over a number of points on the Canadian prairies. Some points indicate no interest in durum until spring.

One notable year-over-year change seen in durum exports is the increase in movement direct from prairie elevators to U.S. destinations, while there is also an increase in movement from the west coast. Shipments from prairie elevators total 166,412 mt which is 12% of the year-to-date exports as of the end of November, which compares to 5.8% of the total shipments direct from prairie elevators at the same time last year. Durum exports from the west coast, totaling 374,499 mt as of the end of November, represent 26.8% of year to date exports, which are up from 14.7% of the total export program as of the end of November in 2012.

U.S. durum exports and cumulative sales as of Dec. 12 are also behind year-ago levels, totaling 332,800, which is 13% below year-ago levels. The U.S. has failed to land business into the North African countries such as Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia this crop year, while year-to-date business with Europe is 3% higher, most of which went to Italy.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

(AG)

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