Canada Markets

Canadian Grains Exports as of May 31

By Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Canadian Grain Commission export data shows crop year-to-date Canadian exports of almost all grains to be well ahead of last year, which includes unlicensed shipments to the end of April. Only canola and oats remain behind year-ago levels.

Canada's 2012/13 crop year exports for the first 10 months of the 2012/13 crop year, until the end of May, slipped slightly from the previous month although still have us on a course which is still 3.39% ahead of the same period in the 2011/12 crop year.

The largest gain over last year is seen in corn, at 223% higher volumes than in the same period in 2011/12. Total exports to-date are 985,950 metric tonnes, which includes licensed elevator shipments to the end of May along with unlicensed shipments to the end of April. Note that corn is not plotted on the attached chart. Of the licensed facility shipping of corn, 44.9% was shipped to the United States, which is almost five times the licensed facility shipping of corn to the U.S. in the same period last year.

The next highest on a percentage basis is soybeans, where volumes in 2012/13 are 35.8% higher than in 2011/12. Total shipments, at 2.478 mmt as of the end of May, are largely due to a 472% increase in crop year-to-date shipments to China of 951,200 mt.

Peas and lentils also show a marked increase in crop year to date volumes as compared to the 2011/12 crop year, with a surge in pea exports to both India and China, while lentil movement benefit from a sharp increase in interest from India. Pea movement was 24% ahead of 2011/12, while lentil movement was 25.8% ahead.

Through licensed facilities, wheat shipping was flat at a .4% increase over the same time last year, although when unlicensed shipping is included, as shown on the attached chart, wheat shipping (excluding durum) is just slightly ahead at 2.84%. Total volume moved is 11.848 mmt through licensed facilities and 679,154 mt through unlicensed facilities, for a total of 12.527 mmt.

Canola and oats are the two crops that are falling behind the pace of 2011/12. Canola is moving at a pace that is 13.9% behind year-ago levels, due to scarcity of supplies given last year's short crop. Licensed facility shipping to China, at 2.576 mmt this crop year, has increased by 11.7%, although more price-sensitive buyers, such as Pakistan, have failed to purchase any canola in 2012/13, which compares to the 558,900 mt that had moved by the same date in the previous crop year. United Arab Emirates have also slashed their imports by 66%.

After taking into account unlicensed shipments, oat export movement has fallen 5.5% from the same period in 2011/12, to 1.34 mmt. Shipments from licensed facilities in Canada to the U.S. fell by 7.3% from the volume shipped in 2012/13, largely based on the availability of U.S. supplies.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

(ES)

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