2025 Digital Yield Tour - Kansas

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- Rain has been hard to come by in recent years in Kansas, but in 2025, drought conditions finally subsided. The result is that average corn yields are likely to outpace the five-year USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) average by more than 25 bushels per acre (bpa), according to 2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour estimates as of Aug. 1.

The state also looks to harvest a soybean crop yielding 5 bpa above the five-year average.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 138.7 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 111.4 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 42.8 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 37.8 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is now in its eighth season, this is the second year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. This is the first year DTN is publishing an estimate from its models for Kansas. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/….

WEATHER COMMENTS

"Kansas had a pretty dry start to spring, with drought covering much of the state at the end of March," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "But the weather pattern got active, and events in late April and May really brought the region out of a lot of its drought issues. The pattern has not been as active in the summer as it was in late spring, but it has been more frequent than normal this season," he said.

"At the end of July, very few areas toward the northern border were in some form of drought. To go along with the frequent rainfall, severe weather has also been significant, especially in late spring, which may have caused some to replant due to large hail or thrashing winds. Flooding has also been somewhat more common due to repeated thunderstorms, especially in the southeastern quadrant of the state.

"The summer has been a hot one -- it always is in Kansas -- but not to the degree it usually is. DTN's analysis has the June-July period as near normal for temperature. Heat waves have been somewhat shorter with cold fronts coming through at a more regular pace. A couple of those heat waves may have hit at the wrong times, with one in mid-to-late July being the most significant, where temperatures were up near the century mark and lows had a hard time breaking below 75 F for a longer stretch of time," said Baranick.

MARKET COMMENTS

"Kansas corn yields are one of the most difficult to forecast, largely due to what is often a high variability in growing conditions from east to west across the state," DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said. "That being said, early August corn ratings are as good as they've been for the state since 2021, a year when the corn yield ended up beating the five-year average by about 3.7%.

"The DTN Digital Yield Tour estimate of 138.7 bpa is nearly 25% ahead of the five-year average based on RMA yield history, so maybe it's a touch high, but with drought conditions also considerably improved, as compared to this time in 2024, I would definitely lean towards an improved crop given what we know today," Montgomery said.

"The Kansas crop for 2025 is rated at a stellar 72% good to excellent by the USDA to begin August. I drove through the heart of Kansas just this week from Oklahoma to Nebraska, and I certainly agree that the bean fields I saw passed the eye test. The five-year average for the Kansas yield is 37.8, so a 13% increase is likely fair to assume in early August, given the conditions are about 20 points higher than usual. However, August weather will be crucial, and western soybean regions can face a wide range of growing conditions in late summer," Montgomery said.

OBSERVATIONS

-- Lee Scheufler, Spencer, Kansas:

Lee Scheufler farms in Rice County in central Kansas, where corn and full-season soybeans vie for acres with hard red winter wheat. Double-crop soybeans are also part of his rotation, and some acreage is irrigated.

He said spring planting was a bit of a struggle, due to excess moisture, a condition that seemed almost unfathomable after several consecutive years of drought.

"Some of our fields have some drowned-out spots in them, but the corn actually got up and going, so it's not quite as bad," Scheufler said. "I haven't walked any fields, but most of the corn looks pretty good.

"Our beans were planted a little later than normal, but not excessively late," he continued. "On the double-crop side, they're looking absolutely wonderful, but we struggled to get them in, too. It was really too wet to plant in a lot of fields, and we didn't get quite as good of a stand as maybe we hoped. I'd say 15% of our acreage that we'd planned to do double crop just didn't dry out before we deemed it too late."

Overall, weather conditions throughout the summer have remained favorable for crop development, and Scheufler said they haven't encountered much in the way of pest or disease pressure.

"Certainly, rain makes grain in almost every case, and it's hard to remember the last time we were this green in August," he said. "We're a long way from having any beans, but I think everybody's just pretty doggone optimistic."

The DTN Digital Yield Tour model predicts that both corn and soybeans in Rice County, Kansas, will exceed their RMA five-year average yields of 110.9 bpa and 34.4 bpa, respectively. Scheufler said his farm's averages should exceed those totals -- with dryland corn exceeding 100 bpa this year and irrigated corn typically ranging from 180 bpa to 190 bpa.

-- Adam Stuteville, FIRST manager, Louisburg, Kansas:

As a manager for Farmers' Independent Research of Seed Technologies (FIRST), Adam Stuteville oversees corn and soybean yield trial locations in southeast Nebraska and eastern Kansas. He said that while there were some pockets where drier conditions existed, for the most part, moisture hadn't been a limiting factor, nor had it affected planting.

"We've had a lot more rain than we had at this time last year," he said. "You'll get 10, maybe 14, days of hot, dry weather, and then you'll get eight or 10 days with rain."

Overall, he said both corn and soybeans looked excellent in his area. Tar spot had been reported in a couple places in northeast Kansas, but nothing widespread. While the "tassel wrap" phenomenon didn't appear in Stuteville's FIRST corn plots or on his family's farm, he said there were some fields in the neighborhood where it was noticeable.

"It was corn of certain numbers that was planted pretty early, like between April 14 and April 18," he said. "I drove by one day and noticed the silks were out, but there were no tassels out. It's limiting the yield. I mean, it could knock 40 to 60 bushels off pretty easy."

Stuteville had pulled some ears and said most were running 14 to 16 rows of kernels around rather than 18 or 20.

"There's been a few people talking about tip back on ears of 1 to 1.5 inches, but ours doesn't seem to have any of that," he added.

He said soybeans also were clean and looking good. Most fields were still flowering and starting to fill pods.

The DTN Digital Yield Tour model predicts that in Miami County, Kansas -- where Stuteville has multiple corn and soybean yield trials established -- both crops will exceed their RMA five-year average yields of 121.8 bpa for corn and 40.5 bpa, respectively.

"Those yields are definitely attainable, but we're going to need a couple more rains," he added.

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Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/…

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

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