2025 Digital Yield Tour - Illinois

DECATUR, Ill. (DTN) -- Illinois can be a bit of a wild card when it comes to crop yields. With 390 miles separating the state top to bottom and the inherent differences that come with it, estimates tend to get lumped into northern, central and southern Illinois designations.

Those arbitrary lines may turn out to be more important this year. DTN's Digital Yield Tour Aug. 1 estimate puts Illinois corn at 220.1 bushels per acre (bpa) and soybeans at 64.5 bpa. Those are big numbers.

Late July and early August rains have much of the state glowing green, but southern Illinois has had a rough year. While analysts don't always dip below I-70 when accounting for Illinois' potential, there are questions as to how much of a contribution will be required from the lower third to deliver a near-record yield.

That question takes on added meaning as rumors of pollination issues swirl in the center of the state. At least a chunk of northern Illinois was left wincing from wind and hail damage. Heat made for rapid growth and taller-than-normal plants, which adds questions about standability as the season progresses. There are also reports that early planted corn is denting early in some regions, leading to concerns about dry matter accumulation.

Soybeans, outwardly, appear to be having a moment in the northern two-thirds of the state where late-summer rains have resulted in lush fields. Leggy beans don't always translate to top yields, though, and soybeans are always a head scratcher on what makes them happy. Windows were good for establishing double-crop soybean beans, but reports on condition vary depending on rainfall (too much or too little).

Given the dry conditions the state began with prior to planting, Illinois' comeback is remarkable, but questions remain about how late planting, different planting dates and the heat endured during July and further cooking during August may have influenced this crop.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 220.1 bpa

-- DTN 2024: 211.8 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 212 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 64.5 bpa

-- DTN 2024: 61.5 bpa

-- RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 66 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its eighth season, this is the second that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug.19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/…

WEATHER COMMENTS

"The weather situation was a little chaotic over Illinois this year, but we're still in a favorable spot in early August," said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. "Warm weather allowed for some farmers to get started planting early. But wet conditions across the south in the first few days of April, which included some double-digit rainfall near the Ohio River, caused slowed planting progress." Some farmers had to wait a month longer than they're accustomed to waiting to get the crop in the ground.

"Meanwhile, northern areas had infrequent and lighter rainfall in the first half of the growing season. Deficits were running about 50% of normal through the end of June, but July rains came on strong. Depending on planting date, some of these areas may have had issues with pollination, but much of the state probably did well. There is still some limited drought on the northern end of the state, but that has been slowly eroding in July and early August. Satellite and model estimates largely confirm the story from NASS crop reports, that topsoil moisture is really good right now, with only some limited areas of poor subsoil moisture," Baranick said.

MARKET COMMENTS

"This would be a record yield for the state by NASS history, and 3.8% ahead of the five-year average of RMA yields," DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said. DTN's yield models are trained on RMA data, which reflect yields reported to crop insurance. "It is interesting that this year's Digital Yield Tour is estimating Illinois corn 8.3 bpa higher than last year's tour, with the crop conditions in the state 12 points lower on good-to-excellent ratings to open August as compared to a year ago," Montgomery said.

"There has been some lingering dryness in northern Illinois and perhaps some issues with excess moisture in southern Illinois, especially at planting," he said, adding that planting ran slightly behind the normal five-year average pace heading into late May. "Overall, I believe the estimate is fair, but with some rumors of pollination issues in the Eastern Corn Belt, it will be interesting to see results when combines roll this fall."

On soybeans, good-to-excellent condition ratings were 12 points lower than 2024 ratings at the beginning of August.

"Northern Illinois had a dry start to the growing season, but rains really picked up in July. Given that 11% of the soybeans were rated poor to very poor entering August, it will be a very important month of pod fill. Given the mixed conditions, an estimate just below the five-year average yield seems fair for early August."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Kirk Liefer, Red Bud, Illinois:

Heavy and frequent rainfall this spring entered Kirk Liefer into a planting marathon that lasted from mid-April through the beginning of July. Liefer farms in Jackson, Monroe, Perry and Randolph counties in the southwestern portion of the state.

"It was an exhausting, crazy year down here, and we've got a very wide range of planting dates," Liefer said. "The crop looks pretty good considering what we've been through, but we're in need of rain now," Liefer said on Aug. 4.

"In this part of Illinois, we can go from 'pretty good' to the other direction fast. We've missed some of these late July and early August rains and we're at that stage where we need rainfall to solidify a decent crop."

While the crop endured some heat during pollination, Liefer said corn seems to have filled fine. "April corn is made and is expected to be ready for harvest in early September. Some of those stands probably could have been replanted, but we never got a chance. We had to spot in places and call it good," he said.

The next planting occurred in early-to-mid May. Liefer said that planting looks good, except it currently needs rain. The next planting window came in late May and much of that was replanted in late June after excessive rainfall, he noted.

Soybeans took the brunt of late planting in Liefer's area. "Soybeans are flowering and putting on pods, but some of those late-planted beans are looking tough where they've missed rains," he said.

"It was a struggle everywhere down here this year, but the further east you go -- those places we farm in Perry and Jackson counties -- had it worse," he said. Fields dried up enough to get the wheat crop out in time to double-crop soybeans around July 4. Those soybeans have potential if they get moisture and no early frost, he said.

"We always say we need August rains to make a bean crop in Illinois," Liefer added. "That's especially true in this area this year. We've got first crop soybeans at R3 and R4 that are putting a lot of energy into building pods. They're still trying to throw some blooms out the top. So, the potential is there, but we are not in the clear for outstanding yields."

Liefer lives with the knowledge that crops to the north of him drive yield estimates. "There's a saying in southern Illinois that we're always a week away from a drought, and we know it.

"I think we're looking at an average corn crop that pushes against our 170-to-180 (bpa) APH (average production history). If we have some decent rains, we could see some 200-bushel corn and maybe touch 230 (bpa) in a few fields. But again, most of our crops are late, and there's a lot of season to go for both corn and soybeans," Liefer said.

-- Dave Kermicle, Olney, Illinois:

It was raining when DTN checked in with Dave Kermicle on Aug. 4. Abundance of rainfall has been the story in the southeastern part of the state this year.

Most of Kermicle's corn got planted around mid-May. While many farmers in his area chose to plant soybeans first, he stuck with corn. He finally socked soybeans into the ground between June 5 and June 10. Subsequent flooding and poor stands caused Kermicle to replant about one-third of his bean crop.

"I had a first this year in that I planted a cornfield twice, and when the second planting failed completely, I ended up planting the field a third time to soybeans," he said. "Had I known what was coming, I probably would have left the first stand of corn."

A 20,000-plant-per-acre (ppa) stand doesn't cut it when you're expecting 32,000 ppa. But it rained 4 inches the day after the first replant to seal the seed in, Kermicle reported.

"It sure makes you feel low. It's my worst field experience this year and probably of my career," he said.

Overall, soybeans have suffered more than corn from the extended soggy conditions, Kermicle observed. "Some beans still look yellow, and they are late," he said.

"How the crop looks in this area depends on what the farmer chose to plant first once we were finally able to get into the field, in my opinion. We just had so few good days to run. What got planted in mid-May seems to be faring better than later planted," he said. "It has been hot this year, but I think hot and humid is better than hot and dry."

Some crops endured the stress of standing in water while temperatures soared, though. Kermicle said he's been surprised how well fields look to have recovered, but those periods came while the crop was determining ear size, leaving questions.

Richland County came in with a final NASS corn average of 179.4 bpa in 2024. Kermicle said right now, his corn crop looks as though it could reach that number. He's hoping fungicides will hold up to the threat of southern rust. He's seen some evidence of gray leaf spot this year.

"I'm pretty sure we set a record for rainfall in May and maybe in June and July, too. Now, here we are in August, and we're getting it again," he said as thunder boomed in the background.

"I've always wondered how USDA might rate one of my fields -- good, excellent or what," he said. This year, they might just peg those fields as wet.

-- Austin Rincker, Moweaqua, Illinois:

Austin Rincker can take the heat, but his crops might have fared better if it had cooled down a few nights during July.

"I think we've got a very good crop, but my concern is the heat took off top-end corn yields," he said. Rains were spotty where he farms in central Illinois in Macon and Shelby counties.

He's found a few, isolated pollination problems while pulling ears. "I have one number that has more tip-back than normal, but overall, the potential is still there for most of my crop," he said.

Rincker got beans planted in April, but weather delays pushed his corn planting into mid-to-late May. "I've always been told that late corn will get tall, and we're proving that on a few fields this year," he said.

To try to hone input costs, he was a tad more conservative with fungicide this year. He sprayed all his acres but chose a lower-cost product without all the "bells and whistles."

"I'm beginning to see a little gray leaf spot in corn and that's a concern if we start to get hot and really humid again," he said.

Soybeans are a mixed bag. "I think there's quite a bit of potential in the bean crop, especially the April-planted beans. But we're going to need some rains on our May-planted beans," he said.

Red crown rot (RCR), a relatively new disease in the Midwest, has been found in Rincker's soybean fields. RCR causes deterioration of soybean roots and stems. Symptoms don't typically show up until R3 growth stage. He's working with University of Illinois scientists to try to determine management solutions.

Rincker has some early planted 2.9 relative maturity (RM) soybeans that will likely start his harvest.

"From the road this crop looks great. But is it a bin buster? I'd say more like slightly above average," Rincker said. "I am worried a bit about stalk quality on corn. We had quite a bit of wind this season, and some of the corn crop has a good bend in the stalk. We're going to have to keep an eye on it to make sure that doesn't start going down as we edge toward harvest."

-- Shay Foulk, Henry, Illinois:

Shay Foulk experienced a near-perfect planting scenario in 2025 where he farms just north of Peoria near Henry in Marshall County. Although crops have endured some heat that has possibly trimmed some top-end potential, he's on track for a satisfying season.

The farm sits at about 232-bpa trend-adjusted yield for corn and 70- to 72-bpa trend-adjusted yield for soybeans. "If conditions hold steady, my indications are we'll be 5% to 7% above that for both crops," said Foulk.

He started planting on April 13 and had just enough rain to provide a restful lull before finishing up April 29. Even subsequent herbicide applications and side dressing were completed without many headaches.

June delivered 4.5 inches of rain, and July added another 9-10 inches of rainfall over most of his acreage. It left creeks running but not overflowing, Foulk noted.

"We were dry coming off of 2024, and those July rains recharged the soil profile with moisture," he said. "We didn't even see ponding. But it did leave us trying to keep ahead of cutting the grass. Anytime you can do that in August, it means we expect good things."

Beyond farming, Foulk, is also active in two family businesses: Ag View Solutions as a financial and business consultant, and Monier Seed, a soybean and small grain seed production and processing business.

This year he sees a corn crop that is remarkably tall. "Most crops seem to have experienced quick growth and elongation," he said.

On Aug. 7, Foulk's in-field checks found more tip back than he might have thought from a roadside glance. But he found the kernel depth and plant health looked good. Ear height was high.

The farm is heavily devoted to soybeans this year. Maturities range from 2.3 to 3.8 RM. He has Sept. 15 circled as the day to start cutting early maturing varieties. Those in the later maturity ranges are still flowering and setting pods.

"We're seeing good node counts of 18 to 21 nodes. Planting population on average across our farm was about 120,000, and it seemed like every soybean came up. Phenomenal early season stands, and very little early season pressure have continued to correlate to pods per plant," Foulk said.

"We are seeing a lot of three- and four-bean pods this year, too. But ultimately, yield is made in August and September. If we continue to get good heat and nutrient movement and another inch or two of rain, we'll have a good bean crop," he said.

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Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/…

Pamela Smith can be reached at pamela.smith@dtn.com

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