DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most retail fertilizer prices continue to decline, according to prices tracked by DTN for the second week of January 2023. Seven of the eight major fertilizers are lower compared to last month.

Of these seven, five were noticeably lower compared to last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Anhydrous was down 12% from last month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $1,245/ton. It's the first time the anhydrous price dropped below $1,300/ton since the second week of November 2021. That week the price was $1,220/ton.

Potash was 8% less expensive compared to last month with an average price of $742/ton.

MAP was 7% lower in price compared to a year ago with an average price of $875/ton.

Urea was 6% lower compared to last month with an average price of $732/ton.

UAN32 was 5% less expensive than in mid-December with an average price of $650/ton.

Two fertilizers are only slightly lower compared to a month earlier. DAP has an average price of $868/ton while UAN28 is at $563/ton.

One fertilizer is slightly higher in price looking back to last month. 10-34-0 had an average price of $754/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.80/lb.N, anhydrous $0.76/lb.N, UAN28 $1.01/lb.N and UAN32 $1.02/lb.N.

Natural gas prices have dropped across the world, but the price is still considerably higher in California, Dow Jones newswires report. The spot natural gas price in southern California this month has averaged $19.40 per million British thermal units, which is roughly five times the U.S. benchmark of $3.75.

The premium was even greater last month when natural gas in California at times exceeded $40. Meanwhile, the rest of the country's prices dropped from around $7 to less than $4.

California prices usually don't move much from the U.S. benchmark and regional prices spikes tend to only last just days, Dow Jones said. The sustained surge is due to uncertainty over when a key pipeline in the state will reopen.

Natural gas, a key ingredient for fertilizer, in southern California has faced the highest price increases, but its costs have also risen sharply across the entire state. Average prices in December quintupled from a year earlier at five California trading hubs, according to Dow Jones.

Most fertilizers are now lower compared to one year ago. This week, seven fertilizers are lower while only one is slightly higher.

Both UAN28 and UAN32 are 4% lower, 10-34-0 is 5% less expensive, MAP is 6% lower, potash is 8% less expensive, anhydrous is 13% lower and urea is 20% less expensive looking back to a year prior.

One fertilizer is still more expensive compared to last year. DAP is 1% higher compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

The supply of fertilizer is readily available, and farmers should communicate their needs to their fertilizer retailers, according to a fertilizer executive. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DTN recently published a series titled "Global Fertilizer Outlook." Here are those articles:

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 1, go to:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 2, go to:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 3, go to:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jan 10-14 2022	863	932	807	913
Feb 7-11 2022	876	935	815	905
Mar 7-11 2022	919	955	822	901
Apr 4-8 2022	1040	1056	875	1031
May 2-6 2022	1057	1081	881	1001
May 30-Jun 3 2022	1056	1079	880	979
Jun 27-Jul 1 2022	1039	1053	885	867
Jul 25-20 2022	1005	1041	887	836
Aug 22-26 2022	972	1026	880	804
Sep 19-23 2022	950	1005	875	811
Oct 17-21 2022	930	986	863	826
Nov 14-18 2022	930	978	848	812
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022	902	939	807	779
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023	868	875	742	732
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jan 10-14 2022	796	1430	584	679
Feb 7-11 2022	827	1487	600	699
Mar 7-11 2022	866	1490	603	704
Apr 4-8 2022	901	1534	629	729
May 2-6 2022	906	1534	631	730
May 30-Jun 3 2022	905	1529	633	731
Jun 27-Jul 1 2022	904	1466	611	702
Jul 25-20 2022	894	1431	596	693
Aug 22-26 2022	869	1331	575	676
Sep 19-23 2022	860	1376	578	670
Oct 17-21 2022	759	1419	576	678
Nov 14-18 2022	753	1415	584	681
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022	750	1415	579	682
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023	754	1245	563	650

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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