DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices continued to shift even lower the third week of January 2020, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

For the first time in quite some time, multiple fertilizers were significantly lower compared to last month. DTN designates any change over 5% as a significant price move.

DAP is 7% lower compared to the month prior and now has an average price of $413 per ton. Urea is 6% lower compared to the third week of December 2019 and has an average price of $357/ton.

Five other fertilizers had a slight price decline from the previous month. MAP had an average price of $435/ton, potash $374/ton, anhydrous $487/ton, UAN28 $237/ton and UAN32 $275/ton.

The remaining fertilizer, 10-34-0, had a slight price increase looking back to last month. The starter fertilizer had an average price of $470/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.42/lb.N and UAN32 $0.43/lb.N.

Over the last several weeks, we have examined crop budgets and fertilizer price estimates for the 2020 and 2019 growing seasons from Purdue University Extension and North Dakota State University Extension. Today, we will look at the 2020 crop budget from Iowa State University (ISU) Extension.

The crop budgets from ISU Extension are divided up by crops and what the cropping situation is in the case of corn. In addition, the budget also has three different yield levels.

The 2020 corn-on-corn budget has three yield levels -- 164 bushels per acre (bpa), 182 bpa and 200 bpa. The fertilizer cost estimate in the 164 bpa category is $99.51/acre, 182 bpa is $103.41/acre and 200 bpa is $107.34/acre.

The 2019 corn-on-corn budget was $111.91/acre for the 164 bpa range, $116.29/acre for 182 bpa and $120.78/acre for the 200 bpa level. The difference between the two years would be $12.40/acre less for the 164 bpa in 2020, $12.88/acre less for 182 bpa and $13.44/acre less for the 200 bpa group.

The 2020 corn following soybeans budget also had three yield levels -- 179 bpa, 199 bpa and 219 bpa. The fertilizer cost for the 179 bpa group is $84.06/acre, 199 bpa is $88.64/acre and 219 bpa is $92.88/acre.

The 2019 corn following soybeans budget had slightly different yield levels at 178 bpa, 198 bpa and 218 bpa. The 178 bpa had a fertilizer cost of $94.35/acre, 198 bpa at $99.15/acre and 218 bpa at $104.37/acre.

The fertilizer cost difference between the two growing seasons would be 178/179 bpa level $10.29/acre less in 2020, the 198/199 bpa is $10.51/acre less and the 218/219 bpa level is $11.49/acre less in 2020.

As with the other crop budgets, the ISU budgets also show corn producers will be saving a considerable amount of money per acre this upcoming growing season with lower retail fertilizer prices compared to a year earlier. To see all of the ISU Extension crop budget, click on the following link: https://www.extension.iastate.edu/….

Retail fertilizers are mixed in price from a year ago. MAP and DAP are both now 19% lower, anhydrous is 17% less expensive, urea is 13% lower, both UAN28 and UAN32 are 12% less expensive and potash is 2% less expensive from last year at this time. In addition, 10-34-0 is 1% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jan 21-25 2019	512	535	383	409
Feb 18-22 2019	512	536	385	404
Mar 18-22 2019	509	533	386	401
Apr 15-19 2019	504	531	388	404
May 13-17 2019	498	526	392	426
Jun 10-14 2019	497	527	392	434
Jul 8-12, 2019	497	532	392	431
Aug 5-9 2019	495	531	395	428
Sep 2-6 2019	491	488	387	408
Sep 30-Oct 4, 2019	476	474	384	404
Oct 28-Nov 1 2019	464	472	383	402
Nov 25-29 2019	456	465	381	386
Dec 23-27 2019	443	454	377	378
Jan 20-24 2020	413	435	374	357
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jan 21-25 2019	467	584	270	313
Feb 18-22 2019	470	596	271	317
Mar 18-22 2019	470	597	270	318
Apr 15-19 2019	481	594	270	317
May 13-17 2019	487	595	267	311
Jun 10-14 2019	487	591	271	314
Jul 8-12, 2019	485	585	276	317
Aug 5-9 2019	491	580	272	320
Sep 2-6 2019	473	522	255	290
Sep 30-Oct 4, 2019	470	511	253	289
Oct 28-Nov 1 2019	468	503	251	291
Nov 25-29 2019	472	497	245	277
Dec 23-27 2019	469	488	240	276
Jan 20-24 2020	470	487	237	275

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(SK/AG)

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