DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to split in direction the first week of December 2016, with some higher from a month earlier and some lower, according to retailers tracked by DTN. However, for the first time, a majority of fertilizers inched higher rather than lower.

Five of the eight major fertilizers trended higher, although none by significant amounts. The five higher are DAP with an average price of $434 per ton, potash $318/ton, urea $333/ton, UAN28 $219/ton and UAN32 $257/ton.

The remaining three fertilizer slipped slightly lower. MAP averaged $443/ton, 10-34-0 $445/ton and anhydrous $463/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.36/lb.N, anhydrous $0.28/lb.N, UAN28 $0.39/lb.N and UAN32 $0.40/lb.N.

Taking a closer look at the retail fertilizer price data, prices of a couple fertilizers have pushed higher over the last month, albeit just slightly.

The first fertilizer to see higher prices is urea. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $323 per ton the first week of November. The first week of December, the price is now at $333 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton during that time.

The $333-per-ton average price for urea is the highest price for the nutrient since the second week of August. The average price for urea then was $337 per ton.

The other fertilizer with higher retail prices over the last month is potash. In the first week of November, the average price for potash was $314 per ton. The average price for the first week of December was now $318 per ton, a difference of $4 per ton.

These small gains fall in line with what I have heard from different people at The Fertilizer Institute's (TFI) Outlook and Technology Conference in mid-November.

One fertilizer wholesaler observed some fertilizer prices were on the rise then. He added that they were very slight price increases, about $5 to $10 per ton. While he may have been talking about the wholesale side of the market, the slight rise in retail fertilizer prices over the last month has been right in this same ballpark.

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers are now double digits lower.

Urea is now down 16%, DAP is 19% less expensive, MAP is 20% lower and UAN32 is 22% less expensive. Both 10-34-0 and UAN28 are 23% lower, potash is 25% less expensive and anhydrous is 26% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Dec 7-11 2015	534	555	417	397
Jan 4-8 2016	495	521	392	381
Feb 1-5 2016	488	502	381	370
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016	476	492	373	374
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016	478	501	370	386
Apr 25-29 2016	476	502	366	386
May 23-27 2016	476	501	365	381
June 20-24 2016	470	495	358	366
July 18-22 2016	464	493	357	357
Aug 15-19 2016	452	471	333	337
Sept 12-16 2016	444	458	320	324
Oct 10-14 2016	438	452	313	316
Nov 7-11 2016	429	449	314	323
Dec 5-9 2016	434	443	318	333
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Dec 7-11 2015	575	625	284	330
Jan 4-8 2016	572	582	273	316
Feb 1-5 2016	549	555	263	305
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016	566	537	260	309
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016	561	580	268	315
Apr 25-29 2016	560	587	274	321
May 23-27 2016	560	587	274	321
June 20-24 2016	554	567	265	305
July 18-22 2016	546	546	260	304
Aug 15-19 2016	513	516	238	285
Sept 12-16 2016	474	496	233	272
Oct 10-14 2016	454	475	224	264
Nov 7-11 2016	447	468	217	256
Dec 5-9 2016	445	463	219	257

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(ES/BAS)

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