DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices continued to advance the first week of April 2016, according to data tracked by DTN. Fertilizer application is in full tilt right ahead of corn planting, and activity is boosting demand.

As was the case last week, six of the eight major fertilizers in DTN's exclusive survey of ag retailers edged higher compared to a month earlier. The only fertilizer up any significance was anhydrous, which gained 8% compared to a month earlier. Anhydrous averaged $586 per ton.

Five other fertilizers were higher compared to last month, but the move was fairly minor. DAP averaged $480/ton, MAP $504/ton, urea $387/ton, UAN28 $272/ton and UAN32 $315/ton.

Two fertilizers were lower in price, but again the move lower was fairly minor. Potash averaged $369/ton while 10-34-0 was at $561/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.42/lb.N, anhydrous $0.36/lb.N, UAN28 $0.47/lb.N and UAN32 $0.49/lb.N.

In the FarmdocDaily post titled "Averages and Seasonality of Prices for Nitrogen Fertilizers" from the University of Illinois, author Gary Schnitkey examined anhydrous prices from 2008 to 2015. He also looked at possible price differences in the fall versus spring to see if fall applications proved more cost effective.

Using prices from the Illinois Production Cost Report published by the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), anhydrous prices averaged $733 per ton during this time. The highest price was $1,161 per ton in October 2008 while the lowest price was $431 per ton the fall of 2009.

Anhydrous prices tend to be lower during the fall compared to the spring, Schnitkey wrote.

"From 2009 to 2015, anhydrous ammonia prices averaged $720/ton, slightly less than the $733/ton," Schnitkey wrote. "The September price averaged $682/ton, 95% of the $720/ton yearly average price. On the other hand, the May price of $745 per ton was 3% higher than the $720/ton per year."

He noted there can be considerable variability from year to year. Some years the price was lower in the spring, and in some years the price was lower in the fall.

Schnitkey also looked into the prices of the different forms of nitrogen during this same time period.

From 2008 to 2016, anhydrous averaged $0.45 per pound while urea averaged $0.54 per pound and liquid N averaged about $0.61 per pound. Urea had an average price that was $0.09 per pound higher than anhydrous, and liquid N was $0.16 per pound higher in price than anhydrous.

Providing the same amount of nitrogen using recommendations from the Corn Nitrogen Rate Calculator for central Illinois, using all anhydrous would create a cost of $72 per acre. Using all urea increased costs by $14 per acre to $86 per acre. Using all liquid N would increase costs by $26 per acre to $98 per acre.

"Using anhydrous ammonia has a significant cost advantage compared to urea and liquid N for apply the same level of nitrogen," he wrote.

To read the entire report, log on to http://goo.gl/….

While retail fertilizer prices have reversed their year-long slide since February, all fertilizers remain lower compared to a year earlier, according to DTN's most recent weekly retail survey.

10-34-0 is now 14% lower. UAN32 is 15% lower compared to a year earlier while DAP, MAP and urea are all now 16% less expensive. In addition, anhydrous is 17% lower, UAN28 is 18% less expensive and potash is 25% lower compared to a year ago.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Apr 6-Apr 10 2015	570	598	491	461
May 4-8 2015	570	598	491	457
June 1-5 2015	570	598	491	461
June 29-July 3 2015	570	596	490	469
July 27-31 2015	569	594	487	469
Aug 24-28 2015	567	586	476	447
Sept 21-25 2015	562	575	454	428
Oct 19-23 2015	547	562	435	413
Nov 16-20 2015	545	559	424	403
Dec 14-18 2015	532	544	410	392
Jan 11-15 2016	495	521	391	381
Feb 8-12 2016	479	499	378	369
Mar 7-11 2016	477	494	372	378
Apr 4-8 2016	480	504	369	387
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Apr 6-Apr 10 2015	648	709	333	370
May 4-8 2015	653	711	331	371
June 1-5 2015	650	710	331	371
June 29-July 3 2015	642	705	330	369
July 27-31 2015	636	689	324	354
Aug 24-28 2015	609	667	309	350
Sept 21-25 2015	589	646	297	343
Oct 19-23 2015	582	637	291	334
Nov 16-20 2015	579	629	287	332
Dec 14-18 2015	571	612	279	331
Jan 11-15 2016	572	581	272	319
Feb 8-12 2016	569	551	261	303
Mar 7-11 2016	562	541	262	312
Apr 4-8 2016	561	586	272	315

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(MZT/AG)

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