DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...122 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELL, CA

LOW THU...25 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...JACKSON, MS 2.78 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is across the central U.S. with a ridge building into the West while another ridge is along the East Coast. By this weekend, the western ridge will finally nudge the trough in the central U.S. to the east. However, the trough will still linger in the Great Lakes and lead to systems moving through the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will be above average across much of the West and the Southern Plains this weekend.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which has been better with the cooler air this summer. Eventually, a ridge will extend over the West and Plains later next week while a trough will be in the East. Storm systems could still traverse through the Corn Belt and temperatures could be a few degrees below average across the north-central U.S.

The pattern of the ridge in the West and trough in the East could hold on through the end of the month.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): There was a brief break in the heat earlier this week, but temperatures will rise into the 90s this weekend into next week. Showers and storms will be spotty through the weekend, mainly targeting the Dakotas. Precipitation deficits remain high and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops. The storm track will continue to favor the Northern Plains next week with a stronger system moving in Thursday and Friday.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): The Central Plains have seen most of the rain this week while the Southern Plains have been on the drier side. Throughout next week, storms will continue to favor the Central Plains, but monsoonal moisture from the Desert Southwest could nudge into West Texas at times. Rain may come just in time to benefit reproductive corn in northern areas, but it may be too late in the south, where early harvest will start at the end of the month.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some slight relief to the recent heat will continue through the end of the week behind a slow-moving cold front which will move through the Ohio Valley on Friday. This week's milder air and recent rainfall will bring improving conditions for some, but for areas south of this week's front, conditions could be warmer and dry. Next week's storm track could go directly over the Corn Belt with some swaths of heavier rain possible at times. A few more shots of widespread rain would be beneficial for filling soybeans and reproductive corn.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Spotty showers have led to worsening conditions for cotton and soybeans. Late this week, isolated showers and storms will return across the region, but model guidance is agreeing that heavy rain will likely not be widespread. A similar pattern may set up for next week with only isolated showers across the region. Any additional rain may be too late for maturing corn and soybeans with early harvest starting up at the end of the month.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas in the southwest have been too hot and dry, where stress is starting to show up. Widespread showers may not return until Sunday across the southwest as most storm systems continue to favor northern and eastern areas late this week. Cooler temperatures will linger in the southern Prairies through early next week, but more heat would help the rate of growth. As showers become more hit or miss, soil moisture is dropping for some areas.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Showers will continue to favor southern Brazil going into next week, beneficial for vegetative wheat. Central Brazil will be drier, typical for this time of the year. The strong El Nino could lead to drier conditions persisting into the late spring across central areas, which would be a bad start to the growing season for corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Widespread showers moved through northern and central areas on Thursday. This weekend into next week, a strong area of high pressure will build across much of Argentina and lead to drier conditions once again. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions are possible. There is also a slight risk for temperatures dropping near freezing next week, mainly across Buenos Aires.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Hot temperatures have been present in central and eastern Europe this week and for areas that got missed by showers, increasing stress is possible for reproductive corn. Western Europe has been drier and slightly cooler this week, allowing wheat harvest to continue. Next week, a strong area of high pressure could develop across much of Europe, lending to warmer and drier conditions.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Showers will pick up across western areas on Friday as a cold front works through with some of the heaviest rain favoring Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania. By Sunday and into early next week, heavier showers will target southwest Russia and the Caucasus. For areas that get missed with showers over the coming days, heat could cause increased stress. Temperatures may not return closer to average until early next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions are becoming more common with the increasing El Nino while most showers earlier this week have favored western areas. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. Widespread, heavier showers will develop across the southeast this weekend but precipitation could become much more hit or miss next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers may start to become more isolated across northeastern China late this week into next week. This isn't a major concern as recent rainfall has led to largely favorable conditions for corn and soybeans.

Typhoon Dolphin will make landfall in southeast China this weekend and lead to heavy rain south of Shanghai. Remnants of Dolphin could impact the North China Plain through much of next week, potentially causing some areas of flooding.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, near to below normal west and above normal east Tuesday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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