DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THURS...121 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THURS...33 AT 19 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OLD STATION, CA, AND KETCHUM, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...NORFOLK, VA 2.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The ridge will spread into the Plains this weekend and early next week, but will get pushed back to the West later next week as the trough takes over more of the Central U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar with the overall picture but have differences in where and how much precipitation to produce. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A cold front will move through the country early next week, bringing back some milder air across the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will continue across the West and Plains. Another system will move through late next week and weekend with some precipitation and another supply of milder air to the East and parts of the Central.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures will rise in Montana on Friday and be excessive. The heat will spread eastward this weekend.

Some showers have been moving through South Dakota this week, but most areas have been dry. A system moving through Canada this weekend should drag another front through the region that may produce some showers and we could see some spotty areas of showers next week. But overall, below normal rainfall is expected while above-normal temperatures continue next week despite the front.

That is a poor combination for developing reproductive crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled cold front has been producing periods of showers and thunderstorms in the Central Plains, some with heavy rain, which continues on Friday. Temperatures will rise this weekend, causing more stresses as above-normal temperatures continue for much of next week. We will be watching to see if a cold front can come down mid or late next week with some showers and some milder air, or if those fronts will bypass the region and leave it hot and dry.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cool and dry air has been relieving stresses for plants and livestock over the last couple of days, but soils remain rather dry. Temperatures rise again this weekend. Another front moving through early next week could bring through another round of milder air along with some areas of showers, but the showers do not look to be widespread. Another front will move through late next week and weekend, bringing more showers and another burst of milder air. Overall, many areas are going to stay dry or see limited precipitation, unfavorable for pollinating to filling corn and pod-setting soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Though a front has stalled in the region and Tropical Storm Bertha moved across southern Louisiana on Wednesday, it has been drier this week. Some spotty showers will be possible over the weekend, but it will generally be dry with rising temperatures. Another front may bring through some milder air again in the middle of next week, but is forecast to stay mostly dry. The largely hotter and drier forecast will mean more stresses for reproductive cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Temperatures are rising and will stay largely above normal through next week. Several systems will likely move through the region through next week, bringing occasional showers to go along with warmer temperatures. This should be a mostly favorable combination after a cool and wet season thus far, but some areas in the southwest are likely to be too warm and dry and will see stress developing.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Scattered showers have been frequent over southern Brazil this week, being rather heavy and widespread, favorable for vegetative wheat.

Another front will move in with more showers next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Several impulses of a system have moved through the country this week, but precipitation was limited. Several more impulses will move through the country next week, but are forecast to bring through only spotty precipitation. The country could use more solid and widespread rainfall for vegetative winter wheat, but especially in about a month when the temperatures should be rebounding toward spring.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system should spread showers across the continent on Sunday and Monday, but rainfall will be limited in France that has been extremely dry this summer. Yet another heat wave will spread across Europe next week, creating more damage to western areas. Eastern areas will start to see stresses developing again after some rather favorable weather over the last week.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A system that brought widespread showers to Ukraine this week continues in western Russia with several impulses moving through the weekend with scattered showers. Another system will move through early next week with more showers. Conditions are still largely favorable for developing reproductive corn with some exceptions.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some spotty showers may be possible this week and next, but drier weather is starting to become more common for Australia as El Nino starts to really settle in with a drier forecast for winter crops that are still vegetative. Should this continue, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas across central China have had some heavy rain recently, but flooding has occurred in areas largely outside of corn and soybean acres. Scattered showers will continue to be fairly widespread through next week, being mostly favorable for both crops. There may be some heat in the northeast next week, which would be a little stressful for a few areas that have been missing the frequent showers this summer, but otherwise not concerning.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers southwest Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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