DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The ridge will spread into the Plains this weekend and early next week, but will get pushed back to the West later next week as the trough takes over more of the Central U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge and trough will continue to do battle for the middle of the country into early August, making the forecast a difficult one.

The U.S. and European models are similar with the overall picture but have differences in where and how much precipitation to produce. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A cold front will move through the country early next week, bringing back some milder air across the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will continue across the West and Plains. Another system will move through late next week with some precipitation and another supply of milder air to the East and parts of the Central.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...118 AT 16 MILES SOUTWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...25 AT 17 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BACKER, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...RICHMOND, VA 1.84 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. These two features will do battle for the middle of the country this week and next, making the forecast a difficult one through the end of the month. Models currently favor the ridge spreading into the Plains this weekend, but getting pushed back to the West later next week as the trough takes over more of the Central U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European, which has now come much more into alignment with the GFS.

A cold front will move through the country early next week, bringing back some milder air across the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will continue across the West and Plains. Another system will move through mid-late next week with some precipitation, but another supply of milder air to the East and parts of the Central.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures will rise in Montana on Friday and be excessive. The heat will spread eastward this weekend.

Some showers may have been moving through South Dakota this week, but most areas have been dry, unfavorable for developing crops even though the heat has relented. A system moving through Canada this weekend should drag another front through the region that may produce some showers and we could see some spotty areas of showers next week. But overall, below normal rainfall is expected while above-normal temperatures continue into next week despite the front. That is a poor combination for developing reproductive crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled cold front is producing periods of showers and thunderstorms in the Central Plains through Friday. Some of those may produce heavy rain. Areas south of the front remain hotter and drier, a poor combination for any dryland crops and stressful for livestock. Temperatures will rise this weekend, causing more stresses as above-normal temperatures continue for much of next week. We will be watching to see if a cold front can come down mid or late next week with more showers and some milder air, or if that front will bypass the region.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cool and dry air has been relieving stresses for plants and livestock over the last couple of days, but soils remain rather dry. Temperatures rise again this weekend. Another front moving through early next week could bring through another round of milder air along with some areas of showers, but will favor the east with rainfall. Overall, many areas are going to stay dry or see limited precipitation, unfavorable for pollinating to filling corn and pod-setting soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Though a front dropped into the region on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Bertha moved across southern Louisiana, it was very dry on Wednesday. Some spotty showers will be possible over the next few days, but it will generally be dry with rising temperatures this weekend. Another front may bring through some milder air again in the middle of next week, but is forecast to stay mostly dry. The largely hotter and drier forecast will mean more stresses for reproductive cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Temperatures are rising from west to east over the next couple of days and will stay largely above normal through next week. Several systems will likely move through the region through next week, bringing occasional showers to go along with warmer temperatures. This should be a mostly favorable combination after a cool and wet season thus far, but some areas in the southwest are likely to be too warm and dry and will see stress developing.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Scattered showers continue to develop over southern Brazil for the next couple of days, being rather heavy and widespread, favorable for vegetative wheat as long as flooding does not occur.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Several impulses of a system have moved through the country over the last few days, but precipitation was limited. Several more impulses will move through the country through next week, but are forecast to bring through only spotty precipitation. The country could use more solid and widespread rainfall for vegetative winter wheat, but especially in about a month when the temperatures should be rebounding toward spring.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Eastern areas of Europe continue to see scattered showers and mild air the next couple of days. A system should spread showers across the continent on Sunday and Monday. Yet another heat wave will spread across Europe next week, creating more damage to western areas that continue to be drier.

Eastern areas will start to see stresses developing again after some rather favorable weather over the last week.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A system that brought widespread showers to Ukraine this week is finally getting into western Russia with several impulses moving through the weekend with scattered showers. Another system will move through early next week with more showers. Conditions are still largely favorable for developing reproductive corn with some exceptions. A drier and warmer forecast developing next week could start to produce more stresses for corn in the region going into pollination and grain fill.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some spotty showers may be possible this week and next, but drier weather is starting to become more common for Australia as El Nino starts to really settle in with a drier forecast for winter crops that are still vegetative. Should this continue, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas across central China have had some heavy rain recently, but flooding has occurred in areas largely outside of corn and soybean acres. Scattered showers will continue to be fairly widespread through next week, being mostly favorable for both crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers southwest Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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