DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. These two features will do battle for the middle of the country this week and next, making the forecast a difficult one through the end of the month.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Models favor the ridge spreading into the Plains this weekend, but getting pushed back to the West later next week as the trough takes over more of the Central U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European, which has now come much more into alignment with the GFS.

A cold front will move through the country early next week, bringing back some milder air across the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will continue across the West and Plains. Another system will move through mid-late next week with some precipitation, but another supply of milder air to the East and parts of the Central.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...NOT AVAILABLE

LOW TUE...NOT AVAILABLE

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...BRIDGEPORT, CT 2.59 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. These two features will do battle for the middle of the country this week and next, making the forecast a difficult one through the end of the month. Models currently favor the ridge spreading into the Plains this weekend, but getting pushed back to the West later next week as the trough takes over more of the Central U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European, which has now come much more into alignment with the GFS.

A cold front will move through the country early next week, bringing back some milder air across the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will continue across the West and Plains. Another system will move through mid-late next week with some precipitation, but another supply of milder air to the East and parts of the Central.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Mild temperatures continue in the Dakotas over the next day or two while Montana will heat up. The heat will spread eastward this weekend. Some showers may move through this week, but most areas will stay dry, unfavorable for developing crops even though the heat has relented. A system moving through Canada this weekend should drag another front through the region that may produce some showers. But overall, below normal rainfall is expected while above-normal temperatures continue into next week despite the front. That is a poor combination for developing reproductive crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cold front is stalling in the region, being a focal point for a couple of periods of showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Some of those may produce heavy rain. Areas south of the front will stay hotter and drier, a poor combination for any dryland crops and stressful for livestock. Temperatures will rise across the Central Plains this weekend, causing more stresses as above-normal temperatures continue for much of next week. We will be watching to see if a cold front can come down mid-late next week with more showers and some milder air, or if that front will bypass the region.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong cold front is bringing through much more comfortable air to relieve stresses for plants and livestock. The front produced some showers but missed key areas in Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. A few days of cool air will sit in the region before temperatures rise again this weekend. Another front moving through early next week could bring through another round of milder air along with some showers. Overall though, many areas are going to stay dry or see limited precipitation, unfavorable for pollinating corn and pod-setting soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Though a front is dropping into the region on Wednesday, it is only going to produce limited showers. Temperatures will still be excessive in the south. Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to move into Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday, but will be weak and is not forecast to bring much precipitation. With conditions staying largely hotter and especially drier, more stresses for reproductive cotton and soybeans should be developing.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Though temperatures fell with a cold front moving through on Monday, they will rise again from west to east over the next couple of days. Several systems will likely move through the region through next week, bringing occasional showers to go along with warmer temperatures. This should be a mostly favorable combination after a cool and wet season thus far.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. A front moved into the south with scattered showers that continue through the rest of the week, favorable for vegetative wheat as long as flooding does not occur.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Several impulses of a system will have moved through the country over the last few days, but precipitation was limited. A few more impulses will move through the country through next week, but are forecast to bring through only spotty precipitation. The country could use more rainfall for vegetative winter wheat, but especially in about a month when the temperatures should be rebounding toward spring.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Eastern areas of Europe continue to see scattered showers and mild air the next couple of days. A system should spread showers across the continent this weekend. Yet another heat wave will spread across Europe next week, creating more damage to western areas that continue to be drier. Eastern areas will start to see stresses developing again after some rather favorable weather over the last several days.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to move through Ukraine with scattered showers, slowly moving through western Russia Thursday through the weekend in a couple of pulses with scattered showers. Conditions are still largely favorable for developing reproductive corn and winter wheat harvest with some exceptions. A drier and warmer forecast developing next week could start to produce more stresses for corn in the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some spotty showers may be possible this week, but drier weather is starting to become more common for the country as El Nino starts to really settle in with a drier forecast for winter crops that are still vegetative. Should this continue, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas across central China have had some heavy rain recently, but flooding has occurred in areas largely outside of corn and soybean acres. Scattered showers will continue this week, being mostly favorable for both crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers southwest Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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