DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...121 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THU...34 AT FOXPARK, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...SAVANNAH, GA 0.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A strong ridge remains across the West and Central while a small trough continues underneath it in Texas. A trough continues to spin in eastern Canada.

And a couple of disturbances are found on the edge of the ridge, one in the Canadian Prairies and another in the Pacific Northwest. Both of those features will round over the top of the ridge and take out the eastern portion of the ridge this weekend and then early next week, respectively. That will push the ridge back to the West while the eastern trough continues. A ridge-west and trough-east pattern will make the forecast difficult in the transition zone across the Corn Belt through the end of July.

The U.S. and European models are finally coming into agreement on temperatures as the European has finally caught up to the cooler air for next week. I will use a blend.

A cold front will likely stall out somewhere in the Central and Southern Plains next week. Temperatures will remain above normal south of it while it stays much milder north of it. Areas near it could see some periods of showers and thunderstorms. Additional disturbances moving southeast through the country could contribute additional areas of isolated showers next week as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The heatwave continues for the next few days before a front moves through with relief on Sunday into Monday.

Soil moisture continues to evaporate quickly and damage to developing crops and forages is occurring. Even with the heatwave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal in Montana while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain and flooding has occurred in parts of Texas this week, which continues there through Saturday. That will help to keep temperatures down while areas across the north bake in a summer heatwave. The heat will come to an end as a front pushes through early next week. The heat will reduce soil moisture while increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heatwave could reverse that quickly in some areas. However, the front moving in next week may stall in the region. If it does, we could see some enhanced rainfall at times.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It continues to be very hot and humid across the region for the next couple of days. However, thick wildfire smoke and some scattered showers will be in the area through the weekend, which may help to keep temperatures down a couple of degrees. A front will come through this weekend with a second front moving through on Monday and Tuesday.

The second one will bring much cooler air in for next week. Those two fronts plus some additional disturbances could bring through some meaningful rain in some areas, but will miss others. How widespread all that rain becomes will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as it continues to go through pollination, but soybeans could see some stress as well.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Showers have been frequent this week, but are migrating northward into the Midwest. The showers have been keeping temperatures down to more seasonable levels, but will be warmer now with them largely gone. A front clearing through next week will bring more showers and milder temperatures, with conditions remaining overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The region is on the edge of a heatwave and some significant heat will make its way into the west over the next couple of days ahead of another system that moves through this weekend.

But even after this system moves through, western areas are likely to remain above normal next week. Periods of showers will continue into next week but will be somewhat limited in scope and intensity. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Another front will move in with more southern showers this weekend into next week, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. A front moving through on Friday and impulses moving through behind it should bring through more widespread precipitation into next week that would be beneficial.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system is moving across the continent through Saturday.

This is bringing widespread showers through the continent and some cooler air.

Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain above normal in western Europe through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops.

Eastern areas will be milder with more showers, a bit more favorable for crops there.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moving through Europe will slowly pulse through the region this weekend and next week in a few waves, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall, though mostly for Ukraine. Temperatures will be mild in Ukraine, but a bit warmer in western Russia, more favorable for crop growth after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): After some showers earlier this week, conditions should be drier overall across the east through next week. Across the west, a front will produce showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, and it may be becoming drier with time going into late July and August. If the drier trends hold beyond that, it would come during a more vulnerable period for both wheat and canola as they get into reproductive stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas of rain continue to move through central China after some heavier rain early this week. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through into next week, but favor areas that are not flooding, and hitting more corn and soybean areas to the north and northeast, being favorable for reproductive corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near normal south and above normal north.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, falling Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, falling Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers southwest Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and near normal south through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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