DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...117 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ, AND DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...32 AT ANGEL FIRE, NM

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...RALEIGH-DURHAM, NC 1.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a couple of disturbances running through it and a trough in the Southeast. The pattern will continue to be messy over the next couple of days. The ridge will strengthen this weekend. A trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada, deepening in eastern Canada and the Northeast by the middle of next week. This creates a ridge-west and trough-east pattern that may continue for a while.

The U.S. and European models continue to have important differences in the placement and strength of the ridge for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is likely doing a better job at seeing the strength of the eastern trough.

A system will be stuck across the South and Southeast next week where showers will continue. A system moving through Canada could bring a front down into the U.S. next week. That may or may not produce much precipitation. Models are inconsistent with this. They also disagree significantly about the temperature forecast. The preferred models are hot in the West into the Plains with milder temperatures in the East. Though other models suggest more widespread above-normal temperatures. This leads to low confidence.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several disturbances moving through will bring periods of showers over the next few days. Recent and forecast rainfall should continue to boost soil moisture and ease drought, but is also doing so in sporadic fashion. Temperatures remain milder over the next few days, but will increase significantly this weekend. The region is likely to be on the edge of heat next week, which may or may not cause stress depending on how hot it remains and how much precipitation can form on the edge of the heat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A round of scattered showers will move through northern areas on Wednesday, some of which could be severe. More widespread showers are likely to start on Thursday as a front slips southward through the region. Showers will likely continue across the far south into next week. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue this week. We may see temperatures increasing this weekend into next week for a time. Though some issues with stress will show up, the recent and forecast rainfall should also help for crop growth.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues to slowly move through the region, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Some heat will return to the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, but models disagree on a front bringing relief. It is more likely than not that a front does come through, keeping the heat muted, but confidence remains low. Overall, this is still a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans in most of the region, though chances for heat should be monitored as corn starts to pollinate and soybeans are blooming.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A stalled system will continue showers for the next few days. Another front moving through late this week and weekend will bring more and will tend to continue showers across the south next week. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A couple of systems will move through this week and weekend with some areas of showers. Models have decreased the coverage and intensity of the showers and increased temperatures this weekend into next week, which would be preferred in most areas after the long-duration cool and wet weather.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Some showers may move across the south for late this week and weekend, which would be preferred for vegetative wheat and should not disrupt the corn harvest.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. Cooler temperatures behind these fronts have also produced frosts at times, but are not a concern for damage. A front moving through later this week is not forecast to bring much rain and mostly to just northern areas.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Hot and dry conditions in western Europe continue to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent will see more systems producing showers and bringing through some milder air for the next couple of days. The heat will tend to spread eastward this weekend. Doing so may get some showers to move into western countries going into next week. Even if these showers are widespread, which is not in the current forecast, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops beyond repair.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several systems are moving through this week, but are favoring Ukraine with anything widespread or heavy. At least until Friday. Showers are likely to be more widespread this weekend into next week across western Russia. The recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The increasing showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment so far this season. A system may get some showers in the west late this week and some isolated showers will move through the east as well. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia. It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in the northeast and are now spreading to the North China Plain as well, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Super Typhoon Bavi is forecast to make landfall near Taiwan and then central China on Friday and Saturday. Massive amounts of water will flood into central China, which could be an issue for flooding of some crops and will need to be monitored. But overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated showers Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers south Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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