DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...113 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ

LOW SUN...20 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...PITTSBURG, PA 1.97 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge building in the West and a trough stuck in the South-Central U.S. A couple of troughs moving through Canada will take the top off of the ridge and bring showers to northern areas this week. The ridge should strengthen this weekend while the South-Central trough shifts to the East Coast. A ridge-west and trough-east pattern is likely for next week.

The U.S. and European models continue to have subtle, but important differences in the placement and strength of the ridge. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.

A system will be pushing through the South and Southeast over the weekend with scattered showers that may continue near the Gulf Coast next week. Systems moving through Canada could bring a front down into the U.S. next week. That may or may not produce much precipitation. Models are inconsistent with this.

They also disagree about the temperature forecast. The preferred models are hot in the West into the Plains with milder temperatures in the East. Though other models suggest more widespread above-normal temperatures.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers produced some severe weather and heavy rain over the holiday weekend, but many areas remained dry as well. Several disturbances moving through will bring periods of showers throughout the week. Recent and forecast rainfall should continue to boost soil moisture and ease drought, but is also doing so in sporadic fashion.

Temperatures will remain milder this week, but may increase this weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms developed over the weekend, producing some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Some areas of showers will be possible for the front half of the week, but will be more likely during the latter half of the week. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue this week. Though some issues with stress will show up, recent rainfall should also help for crop growth.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front and a couple of systems moved through this weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front brought temperatures down several degrees. Some pockets of severe weather and flooding also occurred, which may have negative impacts. Otherwise, the variable weather has helped most areas of the region either maintain or increase soil moisture for developing crops. Some showers may linger early this week, but a system moving through later this week should bring through more widespread showers and thunderstorms again. Overall, this is still a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans in most of the region.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Areas of showers and thunderstorms developed over the weekend. A system stalling around the region and to the east will continue showers for early this week. Another front moving through late this week and weekend will bring more. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved across the region over the long weekend, keeping soil moisture high. A couple of systems will move through this week and weekend with some areas of showers. Models have decreased the coverage and intensity of the showers from last week, which would be preferred in most areas after the recent cool and wet weather.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Some showers may move across the south this week, which would be preferred for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. Cooler temperatures behind these fronts have also produced frosts at times, but are not a concern for damage.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Hot and dry conditions moved back into western Europe over the weekend, which continues to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent will see more systems producing showers and bringing through some milder air. The heat will tend to spread eastward late this week and over the weekend. Doing so may get showers to move into western countries going into next week. Even if these showers are widespread, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought through widespread showers over the weekend. Several more will move through this week, but favor Ukraine with anything widespread or heavy. At least until Friday. Though in July that would normally be a poor situation for developing corn in western Russia, the recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The increasing showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was drier over the weekend, but recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment so far this season. A system will move into the west late this week and some isolated showers will move through the east as well. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia. It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in the northeast and are now spreading to the North China Plain as well, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

East: Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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