DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...106 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA, AND RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...19 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...GREEN BAY, WI 1.23 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West and a piece of another in the Canadian Prairies with a ridge in the East. The Prairies trough will sneak over the top of the ridge over the next couple of days, but the ridge will remain in place.

Additional pieces of the trough will continue eastward into the ridge through the rest of the week. This weekend, the main trough will be very weak as it moves east this weekend, but strong enough to defeat the ridge and end the heatwave. However, a new ridge will develop behind the trough in the West and continue next week. This ridge may have a tendency to build northeast into central Canada, making the pattern a bit complicated for next week.

The U.S. and European models have differences in how they treat the ridge next week, significantly impacting both temperatures and precipitation. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.

A system will be settling into the South early next week with scattered showers, but will also bring temperatures down across much of the country. Even with the "cooldown", temperatures will still feel a lot like summer next week.

A couple of systems may move through northern areas next week, keeping somewhat active weather going. There will be a lot of areas that only see light rain or none at all, while only a few select areas are likely to get anything substantial. Models continue to disagree on where and when to put showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Disturbances will continue to move through the region through next week, continuing a somewhat active pattern through the region for the first half of July. Rainfall should help to ease drought, but may come with some periods of severe weather. Mild temperatures will have a tendency to rise next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to be stuck from Minnesota to southeastern Colorado and will waffle for the rest of the week. Temperatures continue to be excessive east of the front while it will be a little cooler and drier to the west of it. The front will be a point where showers have been and continue to develop over the next few days, but areas of substantial precipitation should be low in coverage.

That will cause some stresses for some areas that continue to be drier, even after last week's rainfall. A system moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down several degrees. The potential for precipitation next week is a bit uncertain with key model differences. Shower potential will be very hit-or-miss, leading to some areas of good weather and some areas of poor weather for developing corn and soybeans. Those with wheat yet to harvest will have better opportunities to do so.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front to the west and across the north is a focal point for producing periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the rest of the week, which will favor the north with pockets of heavy rain and severe weather, the areas that have been somewhat drier in June.

Temperatures will be extremely hot and humid. By the end of the week, the humidity will likely be too much, causing pop-up showers and thunderstorms across the region. A weak system slowly moving through this weekend will be the end of the extreme heat, but it will still feel like summer next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will still move through at times into next week as well. Overall, this is a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It has been hot and dry in the region this week, but moisture coming up from the Gulf will produce isolated showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday and will get a boost from a system moving through this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will then fall back closer to normal for next week. As long as some of this rain falls over the entire region as forecast, the conditions will not be too bad. However, if we do not see the forecast rainfall, then there could be some stress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A big storm that has produced a lot of precipitation and severe weather over the last several days is exiting on Wednesday. However, disturbances moving through behind the system will keep some showers going for the rest of the week and probably next week as well. The rainfall is overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of flooding will leave some wishing for drier weather.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front remains in the south as showers continue through Thursday before going drier again. Though some late-planted corn could benefit from the rain, much of the crop is maturing and the harvest is well underway.

The rainfall will be more beneficial for winter wheat establishment, though.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Wheat could use some more moisture for establishment, but very little is forecast this week. A system moving through later next week stands a better chance at providing some needed rainfall.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat is easing over the extreme conditions of last week and this weekend, and eastern areas are seeing some beneficial rainfall.

However, the heat will return to western areas over the next few days and continue through next week. This will particularly hurt corn and other summer crops in France, but should have impacts to adjacent areas as well. Meanwhile, eastern areas of the continent should have more luck with systems passing through, producing widespread rainfall, and more favorable temperatures through most of next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A couple of systems will move through this week and next, with models targeting Ukraine with the most precipitation. Though in July that would normally be a poor situation for developing corn in western Russia, the recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. Drier weather this week has promoted drydown and harvest for wheat across the south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues in the southeast with a few more showers and we should see another system moving into the west next week.

This year's El Nino has yet to bring the drier influence it typically does and winter wheat and canola are in largely good condition during establishment.

However, El Nino's influence usually increases over the next couple of months, which may have a more damaging impact yet this season when crops go through their reproductive stages.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in the northeast. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain have been promoting wheat and canola harvest, but showers will be increasing in July as the harvest winds down and summer crops continue to develop. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, especially north.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal south and above normal north Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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