Sort and Cull

If you feel the cattle complex is chomping at the bit, waiting for something bullish from the fundamental side of the market to fall into traders' laps -- you're not alone. Everyone in the complex has noticed that unnerving feeling.

However, in all reality, this isn't unusual behavior for the cattle complex following the Memorial Day holiday. After the long three-day weekend, there are typically two paths the market expects the cattle complex to trade in the following weeks. On one hand, packers expect retailers to be aggressively restocking their coolers, which drives boxed beef prices higher, and can sometimes cause the fed cash cattle market to rally as well. On the other hand, there are times when packers have strategically purchased enough fed cash cattle through the earlier spring months and the cash market begins to lose some of its steam with June's arrival.

Pinpointing where the market falls this year is difficult because, although one would like to be bullish and point to the extremely thin showlists of feedlots as a reason why the fed cash cattle market should continue to rally, there are other bearish cards currently at play that are affecting the marketplace as well. One of the biggest factors currently working against the complex is the unmatched level of volatility laced throughout the marketplace.

Since falling below the market's 40-day moving average on May 21, live cattle futures traders haven't been able to muster up enough support to drive the contracts back above that threshold. And, because the CME continues to widen the market's daily trading limits, the volatility is only going to get worse.

On May 14, the CME sent out a press release stating that, once again, both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts were going to see their daily trading limits expanded, effective June 1, 2026. Previously the daily trading limit for the live cattle contracts was $7.25 per day. Now the live cattle contracts have a daily trading limit of $8.50 and an expanded limit of $12.75. Likewise, the feeder cattle contracts previously had a daily trading limit of $9.25, but now the feeder cattle contracts have a daily trading limit of $10.75 with an expanded limit of $16.00.

And let's also not forgot to mention, over the weekend another case of New World screwworm was found just 31 miles from the U.S./Mexico border in sheep.

Between technical pressure in the futures complex to a never-ending slew of headlines, the market seems braced for the next round of volatility. As the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts continue to chop sideways, let's hope something bullish will develop from the market fundamentals.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.