Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent drought-reducing rainfall across the southern U.S., but drought growth in the north, a big system with widespread precipitation next week, colder temperatures in northern Europe, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST, HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK

A front will be active as it moves into the Midwest and settles Thursday through Saturday, producing batches of showers and thunderstorms. A system will form along that front and push through the region Sunday through Tuesday. Showers may linger longer through the region next week as well, producing plenty of rainfall for a lot of the region. While plenty of fieldwork has been done this week, the slow-moving system will likely cause some delays, but continue to support good soil moisture for most areas.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND

A front will move into the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday with spotty thunderstorms, but will stall out and produce more for Friday and Saturday as well. A system moving to the north this weekend will get more widespread showers and thunderstorms to form as its cold front slowly pushes through the region next week. Some heavier precipitation will be possible in Nebraska, which would ease drought, and showers will be possible through all areas of the region, beneficial for increasing soil moisture. The front may stay active across the south at the end of next week. Cold air will flow in behind the cold front and there may yet be another risk of frost, though that will be tough to accomplish.

WARMER, THEN COLDER WITH SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures have been higher in the Northern Plains this week, allowing for lots of fieldwork to be completed. A system moving into the Canadian Prairies produced some thunderstorms in the west on Wednesday and continues eastward with showers on Thursday, though they look rather spotty. Another system moving through on Sunday and Monday will bring more widespread precipitation, halting fieldwork. Temperatures behind its cold front will be significantly cold for several days next week, resulting in some frosts and freezes, especially near the border.

SHOWERY, COLDER AGAIN IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Warmer temperatures in the Canadian Prairies this week have allowed for a lot of fieldwork to occur. However, a system will slowly move across the region through Friday, bringing widespread precipitation and a sustained burst of cold air that will linger through much of next week. That will produce frosts and freezes. It is unlikely to cause any damage to crops as very little of the newly planted crop is vulnerable, but does not help with emergence or additional planting progress. Showers are likely to continue in the colder air next week, which supports building soil moisture for the crop, however.

DRIER IN THE DELTA THIS WEEK, WETTER NEXT WEEK

Soil moisture in the Delta is much improved from a couple of weeks ago, but rainfall deficits are still large across much of the region. Drier weather continues through the weekend, but a front moving in this weekend and slowly moving through next week should bring through several rounds of good rainfall that should continue to increase moisture and relieve drought.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wheat planting should increase throughout the month across southern Brazil and moisture for establishment will depend on fronts moving up from Argentina. Another front is forecast to bring some rain to the south this weekend and may get a few showers into central areas as well. Any rainfall northward will be beneficial, but most of the safrinha corn areas have already gone a month without rain and will need a lot of rain to make a difference. Only the far south has a chance at heavier rainfall.

COLD TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN EUROPE WITH SHOWERS

An upper-level system has moved over Europe, building showers across the continent. That is producing some needed precipitation into the drier northeast, but may produce some patchy frost across the north for the next few days as well. Many winter wheat areas would be vulnerable should frosts occur. Though the upper low moves to the Black Sea this weekend, more showers are forecast to follow it through early next week. The rainfall is highly beneficial for most areas of the continent.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

An upper-level low-pressure system settling over Europe is bringing through waves of showers to the Black Sea region through next week, increasing moisture for wheat and corn. Most areas will welcome the rainfall as soil moisture has been improving this spring. But the showers may slow down corn planting.

SHOWERS IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEKEND AMONGST DRIER PATTERN

Rainfall deficits across much of Australia are large and conditions are still dry for much of Australia's wheat belt. A system will bring showers through eastern areas this weekend into early next week. Though the showers will be helpful for increasing soil moisture a bit, the developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with fewer storm systems, creating poor weather conditions for winter wheat and canola during the heart of the season.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

The North China Plain and the northeast have been quieter this spring, a pattern that continues for the rest of this week. That may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of either or winter wheat. Showers may increase this weekend into early next week with a system passing through, but the forecast is drier for the rest of next week. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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