Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent drought-reducing rainfall across the southern U.S., warmer temperatures and a wetter pattern ahead, colder temperatures in northern Europe, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SHOWERS AND RISING TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

Cold air produced frosts across the northern Midwest on Monday and in Michigan on Tuesday. That should be the end of the frost risk for the year, though areas near the Great Lakes may be chilly on Thursday morning, as well. A system is moving through on Tuesday into Wednesday with scattered showers and the region will be more active later this week into next week as multiple fronts move into and through. Soil moisture is largely favorable for fieldwork in much of the region, allowing for good planting progress. The occasional rain in the forecast could cause some minor delays in some spots.

SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND

Recent precipitation in the Central and Southern Plains has produced a small boost in soil moisture, but has not erased the large deficits over the last several months. The region will be drier the next few days, but systems moving through the Northern Plains will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Thursday that could have some at least widely scattered coverage going into next week. Above-normal temperatures will be in place through at least the weekend, which adds stress to dry wheat areas, and may continue to reduce soil moisture for those areas that continually miss out on the rainfall.

WARMER WITH SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures are higher in the Northern Plains this week and multiple systems moving through the region or north in Canada will bring through periods of scattered showers through next week. Coverage does not look very extensive, but the opportunities are numerous, probably through the end of the month. That should give enough room to do plenty of field work and get some rain at times as well, overall, a favorable situation for the region that is having some issues with drought.

WARMER NEXT FEW DAYS, SHOWERY LATER THIS WEEK IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Warmth is spreading eastward through the Canadian Prairies with fewer chances for frosts this week. An active weather pattern will get some showers to move through the region, improving soil moisture in some areas, while bogging down a few unlucky areas as well. The active pattern continues next week, but temperatures are forecast to be cooler as well and may bring about more potential for frosts. Planting progress has already been slow in all three provinces due to cold temperatures and late-season snowfalls. Progress should be more rapid this week, though if showers are too frequent, it could cause some issues as well.

DRIER IN THE DELTA THIS WEEK

A front and another system continued to produce some heavy rain in the Delta over the weekend, particularly in the south, easing drought some more. Soil moisture is much improved from a couple of weeks ago, but rainfall deficits are still large across much of the region. Much of this week is forecast to be dry, but the pattern may become more active starting this weekend. More of the fronts and systems are forecast to impact areas to the north and west, but may bring the region in on some of them through the end of May as well. If the rains come, then conditions will continue to improve. If they don't, we could see a return to drought conditions.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL RECENTLY

A front brought areas of heavy rain to Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana on the southern end of the safrinha corn growing areas of Brazil this weekend. However, hot and dry conditions north of the front continue to stress filling corn. Extremely cold air built in behind the front, leading to some frosty temperatures in a small area across the south. That may or may not have an impact on corn. Wheat planting should increase throughout the month across the south and will depend on fronts moving up from Argentina. Another is forecast to bring some rain to the south this weekend and may get a few showers into central areas as well. Any rainfall will be beneficial.

COLD TEMPERATURES SINKING INTO NORTHERN EUROPE

A system moved is spreading showers eastward through Europe early this week. More showers are expected to develop mid-to-late week as an upper-level system stalls out over the continent. That will get some needed precipitation into the drier northeast, but may produce some patchy frost across the north for the next few days as well. Many winter wheat areas would be vulnerable should frosts occur.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers continue to push through the Black Sea region on Tuesday and Wednesday, favorable for increasing soil moisture for wheat and corn. An upper-level low-pressure system settling over Europe will bring through waves of showers later this week and weekend, possibly into next week as well. Most areas will welcome the rainfall as soil moisture has been improving this spring. But the showers may slow down corn planting.

BUILDING EL NINO UNFAVORABLE FOR AUSTRALIA

Rainfall deficits are still large and conditions are still dry for much of Australia's wheat belt. Drier weather continues through much of this week, with chances for showers in eastern areas this weekend. The developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with fewer storm systems, creating poor weather conditions for winter wheat and canola.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

A few showers went through the North China Plain and the northeast over the weekend, but these regions have been quieter this spring, a pattern that continues this week. That may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of either or winter wheat. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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