DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East, another trough moving into the Great Lakes, and a ridge in the West and Plains. The ridge will push the Great Lakes trough offshore at the end of the week as it spreads out through more of the country this weekend. However, the main focus will be in the East while troughs move through the West and Canada.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge in the U.S. and troughs moving through Canada may be a pattern that lasts through the rest of May.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences with the active pattern next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the north this weekend into early next week with scattered showers. Its cold front may be quite active as it may stall out from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley next week. Another system may move through in the middle or likely end of next week with more scattered showers.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...114 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...13 AT 4 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KIPLING, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...WACO, TX 2.27 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East, another trough moving into the Great Lakes, and a ridge in the West and Plains. The ridge will push the Great Lakes trough offshore at the end of the week as it spreads out through more of the country this weekend. However, the main focus will be in the East while troughs move through the West and Canada, possibly through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences with the active pattern next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the north this weekend into early next week with scattered showers. Its cold front may be quite active as it may stall out from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley next week. Another system may move through in the middle or likely end of next week with more scattered showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures are higher this week and multiple systems moving through the region or north in Canada will bring through periods of scattered showers through next week. Coverage does not look very extensive, but the opportunities are numerous, probably through the end of the month. That should give enough room to do plenty of field work and get some rain at times as well, overall, a favorable situation for the region that is having some issues with drought.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent precipitation has produced a small boost in soil moisture, but does not erase the large deficits over the last several months. The region will be drier the next few days, but systems moving through the Northern Plains will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Thursday that could have some at least widely scattered coverage going into next week. Above-normal temperatures will be in place through at least the weekend, which adds stress to dry wheat areas, and may continue to reduce soil moisture for those areas that continually miss out on the rainfall.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold air produced frosts across the north on Monday and in Michigan on Tuesday. That will be the end of the frost risk for the year, though areas near the Great Lakes may be chilly on Thursday morning, as well. A system is moving through on Tuesday into Wednesday with scattered showers and the region will be more active later this week into next week as multiple fronts move into and through. Soil moisture is largely favorable for fieldwork in much of the region, allowing for good planting progress. The occasional rain in the forecast could cause some minor delays in some spots.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front and another system continued to produce some heavy rain in the region over the weekend, particularly in the south, easing drought some more. Soil moisture is much improved from a couple of weeks ago, but rainfall deficits are still large across much of the region. Much of this week is forecast to be dry, but the pattern may become more active starting this weekend. More of the fronts and systems are forecast to impact areas to the north and west, but may bring the region in on some of them through the end of May as well. If the rains come, then conditions will continue to improve. If they don't, we could see a return to drought conditions.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Warmth is spreading eastward with fewer chances for frosts this week. An active weather pattern will get some showers to move through the region, improving soil moisture in some areas, while bogging down a few unlucky areas as well. The active pattern continues next week, but temperatures are forecast to be cooler as well, and may bring about more potential for frosts. Planting progress has already been slow in all three provinces due to cold temperatures and late-season snowfalls. Progress should be more rapid this week, though if showers are too frequent, it could cause some issues as well.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front brought areas of heavy rain to Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana on the southern end of the safrinha corn growing areas this weekend.

However, hot and dry conditions north of the front continue to stress filling corn. Extremely cold air built in behind the front, leading to some frosty temperatures in a small area across the south. That may or may not have an impact on corn. Wheat planting should increase throughout the month across the south and will depend on fronts moving up from Argentina. Another is forecast to bring some rain to the south this weekend and may get a few showers into central areas as well. Any rainfall will be beneficial.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Though a front will move through later this week, it is forecast to be dry across most of the country. Colder temperatures behind fronts may produce frosts at times, but are not a threat to corn, soybeans, or wheat.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system moved into the west over the weekend and is spreading showers eastward early this week. More showers are expected to develop mid-to-late week as an upper-level system stalls out over the continent. That will get some needed precipitation into the drier northeast, but may produce some patchy frost across the north for the next few days as well. Many winter wheat areas would be vulnerable should frosts occur.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved continue to push through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, favorable for increasing soil moisture for wheat and corn. An upper-level low-pressure system settling over Europe will bring through waves of showers later this week and weekend, possibly into next week as well. Most areas will welcome the rainfall as soil moisture has been improving this spring. But the showers may slow down corn planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rainfall deficits are still large and conditions are still dry for much of Australia's wheat belt. Drier weather continues through much of this week, with chances for showers in eastern areas this weekend. The developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with fewer storm systems, creating poor weather conditions for winter wheat and canola.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers went through the North China Plain and the northeast over the weekend, but these regions have been quieter this spring, a pattern that continues this week. That may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of either or winter wheat. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north overnight. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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