DTN Early Word Livestock Comments

Cattle: Higher Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $286.67 -$2.46*

Hogs: Higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $101.92 +$0.50**

*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures showed exceptional volatility, with live cattle futures having a trading range of around $6.00, while feeder cattle showed a range of about $7.00. It was uncertain as to why this volatility developed. Futures opened slightly lower and then fell like a rock, spending the next few hours trying to regain the losses, only to fall back into the close. Trading today will show whether this was an aberration or a sense of reality. Some light cash trade took place on Thursday at $2.00 to $3.00 higher, likely setting the stage for today. However, boxed beef fell on Thursday with choice down $2.68 and select down $5.21. The question for today will be whether traders focus on cash trade or boxed beef. Boxed beef is the driver of the market as it represents demand.

Hog futures did not share the volatility of cattle, resulting in a mixed close. The May contract ceases trading on Thursday next week and closed $0.20 lower with the June contract down $0.32. The rest of the contracts were higher. There is headwind in the market as the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash falling $3.89 on limited trading activity. This may result in higher cash today as packers may be more aggressive since they need to finish purchases for the week. Pork cutout values showed an increase of only $0.05. Futures continue to struggle to find support.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle trading $3.00 higher on Thursday should provide renewed support to the market.	1)	The inability of cattle futures to recover from the early losses on Thursday may indicate the market might be running out of steam.
2)	The higher cash cattle trade should continue today, following Thursday's lead. June live cattle closed at a discount to cash.	2)	The weakness of cattle futures on Thursday could be the beginning of a large price retracement.
3)	Hog futures made another new low, but rebounded nicely, potentially indicating the market is overdone to the downside.	3)	Hog futures made new lows again on Thursday, keeping the downtrend intact. Support continues to remain elusive.
4)	Hog supplies remain current in the country as the slaughter pace continues to remain strong and above a year ago.	4)	Cash hog prices continue to slide with the large decline, moving the average price down to $90.70.

For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.