DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough complex continues across the Central and East, a ridge is still pushing into western Canada, and another trough is moving underneath the ridge through the Southwest. That trough will continue across the far south over the next couple of days in a couple of pieces.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The main trough complex will shift a bit to the east next week, allowing the ridge to take over more of the West and Rockies. However, additional disturbances moving over the ridge will still feed the eastern trough. The ridge may take over more of the South before shifting to the Central next weekend or the following week, causing a pattern change.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences in temperature and precipitation timing. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of smaller systems are likely to move through the country with scattered showers east of the Rockies next week. Timing may change, but these systems are likely to be weaker with more concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms that appear to be targeting the Midwest with the greatest chances for showers. A general warm-west and cold east pattern is expected early next week, but we may see temperatures rising toward the end of the week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...105 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...16 AT BRYCE CANYON, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...INDIANAPOLIS, IN 1.50 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough complex continues across the Central and East, a ridge is still pushing into western Canada, and another trough is moving underneath the ridge through the Southwest. That trough will continue across the far south over the next couple of days in a couple of pieces. The main trough complex will shift a bit to the east next week, allowing the ridge to take over more of the West and Rockies. However, additional disturbances moving over the ridge will still feed the eastern trough. The ridge may take over more of the South before shifting to the Central next weekend or the following week, causing a pattern change.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences in temperature and precipitation timing. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of smaller systems are likely to move through the country with scattered showers east of the Rockies next week. Timing may change, but these systems are likely to be weaker with more concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms that appear to be targeting the Midwest with the greatest chances for showers. A general warm-west and cold east pattern is expected early next week, but we may see temperatures rising toward the end of the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Pockets of isolated showers will be possible into next week. Overall though, conditions should be dry enough for fieldwork. Temperatures have not been favorable this week with frosts and freezes being fairly widespread. A western ridge pressing into the area could bring temperatures up this weekend into next week. Regardless, prospects for good planting conditions are increasing as we get deeper into May.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moving through the region is bringing widespread precipitation that started on Tuesday and continues on Wednesday, but has turned to snow in Colorado and adjacent areas in Nebraska and Kansas. Amounts have been heavy, which would be damaging for winter wheat or any emerging corn and soybeans. Cold temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday could also cause damage. Temperatures will moderate for later this week and be above normal next week. Additional chances for showers will flow through the region this weekend and next week, though coverage looks sparse and amounts do not look heavy like the region needs for its deep drought.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought through scattered showers on Monday and Tuesday. Cold air is moving in behind the front. Additional frosts and freezes may for the next few mornings, but will need the skies to be clear and winds to be calm in which to do so, though models have a mix of both the next couple of days. The region will remain active with smaller storm systems continuing to push through the region Thursday, Friday, this weekend, and next week. Overall, this should produce good conditions for emergence and early growth for crops in the ground, but may cause issues for those trying to plant.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent heavy rain has been improving drought conditions, but large deficits remain. A front and system moving along it is producing more rain going into Thursday. Additional chances will be possible Friday, this weekend, and next week. This should continue to turn the momentum toward diminishing drought, though this will be a long process even if the rain continues deep into May.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A strong cold front brought in another round of very cold air with frosts and freezes this week. Western areas will start to warm up by the end of the week, though some cold may linger in the east into next week. Overall, this is leading to more delays in spring planting. Even though precipitation has slowed down significantly, and showers will be spotty through next week, soil moisture is very good in most areas and will help for early growth once the crop is planted.

BRAZIL (CORN): Some showers are possible from a front moving in on Thursday night that continues through Sunday. Only a small portion of southern safrinha corn areas are expected to get rain. Hot and dry conditions are unfavorable for filling corn in most areas, but cold air moving in behind the front may cause some frosts across the far south Sunday through Tuesday.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybean continue to see harvest advancing, though it is a slow process for most of the country. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. A system moving through Wednesday and Thursday should add some moisture to wheat areas as planting starts up this month.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers are spreading eastward this week, getting some needed rain into the dry northeast. Another system will move into the west on Friday, spreading showers eastward this weekend and especially next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for wheat on most of the continent or improving like areas in the northeast. Though showers may disrupt spring planting a bit, the overall effect is positive.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue over the next couple of weeks. Rains are coming at a pace that is favorable for most areas, though western portions of Ukraine and Belarus could use more frequent rain. They seem to be the target of more of the systems coming out of Europe both this week and next.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved across the southeast over the weekend and were heavier than forecast. More showers are moving through Victoria on Wednesday. However, deficits are still large and conditions are still dry, though some time was bought for the wheat and canola crops. Overall conditions are poor for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. The developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with poor winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Very limited showers over the next 10 days is not favorable either. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring, but those have been diminishing lately as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers, snow west. Temperatures near to well below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday, heavy snow west. Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to well below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday, north Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, falling Friday, below to well below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers south Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, above normal north and below normal south Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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