We'd Like To Mention

A heavy rain came through Nashville the night before Easter. Leaves popped from trees with vigor, coloring the world a promising green. My daughter gathered wildflowers, and we debated whether fleabanes count as daisies as we enjoyed our ham.

Spring is a lovely season; there's nothing quite like a fresh start. By now, America's farmers are hard at work, and hopefully you're looking at perfect rows -- spring green, evenly emerged and full of hope.

It's not only a pivotal time for production; it's also an important one for the markets. Farmers have two marketing years converging, and they must consider sales for the old-crop corn and soybeans residing in bins, as well as the new crop setting roots. Many savvy hedgers, such as Alabama's Stuart Sanderson, often look ever further ahead and start hedging the next year's crop this time of year. (For more on Sanderson's approach to grain marketing, read "Grain Glut," on page 16 of the May 2026 issue of Progressive Farmer magazine, or on https://www.dtnpf.com/…).

It's also a good time to make decisions from a historical perspective. Since 1997, the corn market has hit its high in May in 15% of the years, June, 11%, and July, 15%, DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery explains. The correlation holds for soybeans, too, with the market hitting its high in 18% of the Mays and 11% of the Junes and Julys. The gamble comes in August, when there are plenty of historical accounts of the market hitting its highs but also its lows.

Seasonality is one of the most reliable indicators in an unpredictable market. "You have to be able to lean on something that is predictable historically, and seasonality is the strongest thing we have. I think you have to expect May, June to be the window of opportunity," Montgomery says.

U.S. farmers have more than 5.4 billion bushels of corn stored on the farm, 21% more than last year as of the March 1 "Grain Stocks" report. Part of the reason for the staggering year-over-year growth is that the corn market broke with the seasonal trend. Corn set its high price for the year in February.

Illinois farmer Matt Bennett, who's also CEO and cofounder of marketing advisory firm https://AgMarket.Net/… , cautions that 2026 is unlikely to be a repeat of 2025.

"I understand that last year is what's most fresh in our memory, but we've got to be really cautious," he says, adding the world and U.S. corn demand is at record levels. "When that's the case, you have the potential that any hiccup in production is going to be magnified. You could have massive volatility hit the market."

If you have unpriced grain in the bin, Montgomery and Bennett both suggest working with your originators. Let them know how much you have to sell, and put some offers in. "We might get pleasantly surprised, and they take us up on it. A lot of farmers got caught with this big crop," Bennett says.

That's why it'll be important to mind your local basis this summer. Any 30- to 50-cent rally in the futures market will pull corn out of the bins. As elevators fill, basis will widen, and prices erode. Navigating the next few months of the market will be tricky, but Bennett -- like all farmers faithfully planting each spring -- is an optimist.

"We've all been through a rough go, but it's not our first time," he says of the past few seasons. "I think the grower will get through it. Challenging times create a lot of opportunities."

**

-- You may email Katie at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com, or follow Katie on social platform X @KatieD_DTN

[PF_0526]

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.