DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...96 AT MULTIPLE PLACES IN ARIZONA

LOW TUE...3 AT 4 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ESTCOURT STATION, ME AND MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...SACRAMENTO, CA 1.80 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and a trough in the West. The ridge will continue to slide east, allowing the western trough to combine with another moving through western Canada that will sit in the North-Central and Canadian Prairies into next week. A new trough will enter the West this weekend and move underneath the Central trough into early next week. Another should follow behind it for the middle-to-end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will continue across the Midwest on Monday. Widespread showers will occur with the system. Some cold air in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains this weekend will tend to spread through more of the U.S. next week behind the system, though just how cold it will get remains uncertain. Another system may follow a more southern path for the middle-to-end of next week. If so, that could bringing more precipitation to drought areas across the Southern Plains, Delta, and Southeast, and spread the cold through more of the country as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing through scattered showers but also some colder air. Accumulating snow will be possible with that system, especially in Montana. The system will stall in the Canadian Prairies and may bring occasional showers into the weekend. More showers will be possible from a system passing by to the south on Sunday. The cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though it has been warmer early this week, a front will move through on Thursday and bring in some more cold air that is forecast to be common into early May, especially across the north. Some showers will move through with the front, but will miss drier areas in the west. A better chance for precipitation comes with a system moving through on Sunday. Though it will be brief, precipitation may be widespread and cover some of the dry areas in the west. Another system may get southern areas in the middle of next week. However, deficits and drought are increasing and becoming a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): After a few warmer days this week, a front will move through on Thursday and Friday, producing scattered showers, but also bringing in some colder air, at least to the west. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday, with widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cold air through the region. The colder forecast may slow down planting intentions, as the colder regime will stick around into early May. The region will need to be on the lookout for frosts and freezes for the next couple of weeks yet.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drought is becoming a major concern for this season. A front moving through on Friday into Saturday could bring through some needed showers to the north. Two more fronts will move through next week with scattered showers as well. But despite the chances for rain, it is coming at too slow of a pace to keep up with the increasing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will move in on Wednesday and linger into the weekend, creating widespread precipitation, but as a mix of rain turning to heavy snow, especially in Saskatchewan. The system will also bring through another round of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows seem all but certain at this point, unless models make drastic changes to the forecast.

BRAZIL (CORN): Spotty showers continue around Mato Grosso, but much of central Brazil will remain dry as the wet season rainfall has essentially come to an end a couple of weeks early. A front is stalling across the south and will produce showers for Rio Grande do Sul and Parana at times through next week.

Much of the safrinha corn acreage will be dry, though. The country will then rely on fronts to bring through extra moisture as corn is now pollinating for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is only calling for these fronts to move into the far south. When it is not raining, temperatures are very high, creating additional stress. The lower soil moisture built up this wet season will soon be depleted, a poor outlook for safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A system may bring some showers this weekend. Crops continue to mature and the rainfall is becoming less and less important with each passing day. Rain may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system hit some of the drier areas in the northeast with some needed precipitation lately, but not many. Some showers will move through eastern areas this weekend as well. Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take the scattered showers. Additional showers will move across Spain, especially later this week and weekend. Drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting this week, but are not much of a concern for winter wheat, which has fairly good soil moisture across most of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue into next week, being favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to slow increase this spring. However, it is also colder this week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace. It may discourage corn planting, however.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Showers moved through some southwestern areas on Monday, but drier conditions in the east continue the poor outlook for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. Though a few showers will go through the southwest again later this week, eastern areas are forecast to stay drier, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers have recently fallen on the North China Plain. The rainfall is needed for winter wheat as it has been drier this spring. Canola areas in the south-central continue to get good rainfall. But the northeast has been colder and drier for corn and soybean planting. Some showers may go through this weekend, but more will be needed.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, falling Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, mostly south.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northwest through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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