Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent heavy rainfall across the central U.S., frosts this past weekend and more on the way, isolated showers in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MORE RAIN COMING TO MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Cold weather produced widespread frosts and freezes in the Midwest on Sunday and Monday, with some eastern areas a bit cold Tuesday morning as well. Damage to wheat may have been possible, but not likely to corn and soybeans as emergence is really low across the region. After several warmer days this week, another front will move through on Thursday and Friday, producing scattered showers, but also bringing in some colder air, at least to the west. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday, with widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cold air through the region. The colder forecast may slow down planting intentions, as the colder regime will stick around into early May. The region will need to be on the lookout for frosts and freezes for the next couple of weeks yet.

RECENT FROSTS DAMAGING WHEAT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was dry and cold in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, with many frosts and freezes in the north and west. Extremely cold temperatures on Saturday morning may have caused damage to some of the wheat or caused corn and soybean planters to sit in the barn a few extra days. Though it is warmer early this week, a front will move through on Thursday and bring in some more cold air that is forecast to be common into early May. Some showers will move through with the front, but will miss drier areas in the west. A better chance for precipitation comes with a system moving through on Sunday. Though it will be brief, precipitation may be widespread and cover some of the dry areas in the west. Another system may get southern areas in the middle of next week. However, deficits and drought are increasing and becoming a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost.

STRONGER STORM AND FALLING TEMPERATURES COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Though a few warm days are occurring in the Northern Plains early this week, a system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing through scattered showers but also some colder air. Accumulating snow will be possible with that system, especially in Montana. More showers will be possible on Sunday. The cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature.

MORE COLD AND SNOW FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Though it is warm in the Canadian Prairies now, another system will move in on Wednesday and linger into the weekend, creating widespread precipitation, but as a mix of rain turning to heavy snow, especially in Saskatchewan. The system will also bring through another round of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows seem all but certain at this point, unless models make drastic changes to the forecast.

DROUGHT STILL GROWING IN THE DELTA, BUT RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK

Scattered showers moved through the Delta on Saturday, but it was not the heavy rain that the region needed to reduce the increasing drought, which is becoming a major concern for this season. A front moving through on Friday into Saturday could bring through some needed showers to the north. Another front should bring some showers through on Sunday and Monday. It is possible that showers move through in the middle of next week as well. But despite the chances for rain, it is coming at too slow of a pace to keep up with the increasing drought.

WET SEASON RAINFALL ENDING EARLY IN BRAZIL

Spotty showers continue around Mato Grosso this week, but much of central Brazil will remain dry. A front is moving into the far south, stalling and producing showers for Rio Grande do Sul and Parana at times. Much of the safrinha corn acreage will be dry as the wet season rainfall is coming to an end a little on the early side. The country will then rely on fronts to bring through extra moisture as corn is now pollinating for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is only calling for these fronts to move into the far south. When it is not raining, temperatures are very high, creating additional stress. The lower soil moisture built up this wet season will soon be depleted, a poor outlook for safrinha corn.

MORE RAIN IN ARGENTINA

A system continues with showers in Argentina for Tuesday. Another system may bring some showers this weekend. Crops continue to mature and the rainfall is becoming less and less important with each passing day. It may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest.

NORTHEASTERN, SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE GETTING SOME SHOWERS

A system continues showers in eastern Europe on Tuesday, which has hit some of the drier areas in the northeast with some needed precipitation, but not many. The system is bringing in some colder air for eastern areas. Some showers will move through eastern areas this weekend as well. Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take the scattered showers. Additional showers will move across Spain, especially later this week and weekend. Drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting this week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue in the Black Sea region into next week, being favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to slow increase this spring. However, it will also be colder this week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace. It may discourage corn planting, however.

AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

Showers moved through some southwestern areas of Australia on Monday, but drier conditions in the east continue the poor outlook for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. Though a few showers will go through the southwest again later this week, eastern areas are forecast to stay drier, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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