Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A busy weather pattern across the U.S., including some rain for drought-stricken areas in the Plains, and isolated showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

DISTURBANCES BRINGING NEAR-DAILY SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A front continued to produce showers in the Midwest over the weekend as it lifted north. Multiple impulses and small systems will produce scattered showers throughout the week, ending with a sweeping cold front moving through on Friday and Saturday. Widespread precipitation and areas of heavy rain will increase soil moisture, but may make it difficult for planting and other fieldwork. Colder air will briefly move through behind the cold front this weekend into early next week, which may slow down thoughts of planting as well.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front and system combined to produce areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. Some areas saw heavy rainfall while other areas remained completely dry. Several more impulses will move through this week, creating more of the same. Dry areas in the west are the least likely to see precipitation, but may still happen for a few lucky spots. The last system will move through Friday into Saturday, and will be followed by some cooler air, but the active pattern will restart by the middle of next week again. Dryness continues to be a major issue for some winter wheat areas, but other areas are getting some good rainfall to improve drought and soil moisture for corn and soybean planting.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers went through the Northern Plains this weekend, but many areas remained dry. Several more impulses and batches of showers will move through this week, exiting on Friday with some cold air to follow behind it for the weekend. The constant up-and-down temperatures are limiting the rise in soil temperature, which may have some additional cooler periods the rest of April and possibly into May as well. Drought in the west and south will surely take the precipitation coming with the variable conditions, however.

SOME SHOWERS IN THE DELTA, BUT STILL VERY DRY

It was largely dry in the Delta over the weekend, reducing soil moisture again and further increasing drought. Fronts may bring through some periods of showers throughout the week, but drier conditions are still looking likely while temperatures are well above normal. A final front will move through on Saturday, bringing through some showers and a brief burst of cooler temperatures. The rainfall will likely not be enough to stave off the growing drought, which continues to produce poor conditions for spring planting and early growth.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil with scattered showers over the weekend, but most areas saw isolated showers or none at all. Another system will move into the south and west with scattered showers for midweek, but will quickly return to being isolated showers by the end of the week. Outside of Mato Grosso, which may have more consistent showers, much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dealing with very limited rainfall this week. If rainfall will be more focused on fronts instead of wet season popup showers, as the forecast suggests, this would likely be beneficial for southern corn areas only, and less beneficial for central Brazil. That could be concerning for corn as it begins pollinating this week and into early May.

SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN ARGENTINA

A system moved through northern Argentina with scattered showers over the weekend. Another will move through the north with some heavy rain for Tuesday and Wednesday. Though the rainfall will be useful, it will only be for the shrinking portion of the crop that was planted late. Harvest continues to progress for early-planted corn and soybeans.

STORM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE, NORTHEAST STILL DRY

A system brought showers through western Europe over the weekend and will continue showers near the Mediterranean through Wednesday. A couple of smaller systems will move through northern areas as well, but with limited showers. Most of the continent has favorable soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting. However, areas in the northeast have more limited soil moisture and are in need of some good rains over the next several weeks. Multiple systems are in line to at least provide some chances over the next several weeks.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A stalled system produced daily showers for the Black Sea region last week. Some rainfall continues early this week, and more showers will be possible later this week as well. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter. Above-normal temperatures should help wheat develop at a regular pace.

AUSTRALIA IS TOO DRY

Outside of a few isolated showers across the far south, it was dry in Australia this weekend, continuing to produce poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment as that usually increases in April. Very little precipitation is in the forecast this week though, discouraging planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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