Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A busy weather pattern across the U.S., including some rain for drought-stricken areas in the Plains, and isolated showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

DISTURBANCES BRINGING NEAR-DAILY SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A front will remain active in the Midwest with showers on Friday, lifting northward on Saturday with some warmer air moving in. A system will bring more scattered showers throughout next week in several impulses, providing plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for spring planting. However, some areas may receive too much, and ponding may be a concern for planting as well. Though temperatures are rising and will be very warm this weekend into next week, the 50-degree soil temperature mark is only creeping into southern areas and frequent changes in air temperature will mean a slow progress northward for the rest of the month. The long-range forecast is calling for potential frosts in early May, which if realized could threaten some of the corn and soybeans that emerge by then.

AREAS OF RAIN FALLING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK

A stalled front brought scattered showers into the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday, which continues for Friday before lifting northward on Saturday as another system moves in. Several impulses will bring seemingly daily showers and thunderstorms through next week. However, they will come in batches that won't hit all areas. Some areas will see heavy rain while others may miss out completely. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting. Drought remains a problem despite the active pattern, though this pattern is forecast to remain in place for the next couple of weeks.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A few showers have moved through the Northern Plains this week. Another system will move through this weekend with warmer air and some scattered showers into Monday and several impulses may bring showers through next weekend. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

SOME SHOWERS IN THE DELTA NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL DRY

Drought is still heavily entrenched in the Delta region. There may be some isolated showers into the weekend, but drier conditions this week have not been favorable for soil moisture. That will make planting and early growth more difficult. A few fronts will approach the region with some showers next week, but consistent, heavy rains are not in the forecast.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front brought through some more consistent showers this week, but it still under-performed for much of central Brazil. Another front will enhance showers across the south this weekend into early next week, but wet season rainfall does appear to be winding down early in central Brazil with lower coverage and amounts. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn, as wet season rainfall is counted on for decent corn yields. If the rains indeed shut down early, prior to the start of May, then losses should be expected.

SOME SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A system will move across northern Argentina this weekend with more rainfall, as will another early-mid next week. That is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest and late-planted crops are approaching maturity in some cases as well.

STORM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE NEXT WEEK

A couple of smaller systems moved through Europe this week with more focused areas of precipitation across Spain and Germany. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting outside of the northeast, which is drier. Showers may be more widespread this weekend into next week as a system slowly passes through the continent. Northeast areas still look drier, though.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A stalled system continues to produce rounds of showers for the Black Sea region into early next week. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

AUSTRALIA COULD USE SOME MORE RAIN

A few showers went through southern Australia, but many areas have been dry this week. That is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Drier conditions are forecast next week as well, discouraging wheat and canola planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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