Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A front moving across the U.S., growing drought in the Central and Southern Plains but an increase in precipitation next week, rainfall for parts of Argentina, and thinning showers in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST

A stronger front will move through the Midwest on Thursday with another round of colder air and scattered showers, some of which could be severe. The colder air will be very brief, however. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which would increase potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought as spring planting starts in some areas.

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong front will move through the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday and Friday with a few showers and a round of cooler air. Temperatures will rise again next week, though. Precipitation has been very limited lately, which is causing drought to expand across the region. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which will promote scattered showers, but that does not guarantee precipitation for some of the driest areas. Winter wheat conditions are falling significantly and soil moisture conditions are not favorable for many areas for spring planting.

UP-AND-DOWN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front is moving through the Northern Plains on Thursday with a few showers and a round of cooler air that will be very brief. Temperatures should rise on Saturday and the weather pattern will be more active next week as a couple of systems will make their way through. Eventually, some colder air is likely to move in later next week, which could make for some snow. The region would certainly welcome some precipitation ahead of spring planting.

DRIER IN THE DELTA, SOME SHOWERS NEXT WEEK

Recent dry conditions are turning the momentum around toward building drought instead of reducing it, which is already widespread across the Delta region. While this will make fieldwork very easy, it will not be favorable for early growth as soil moisture is becoming limited again after some good rain in early March. The pattern looks to be a bit more active next week and into early April, but may not necessarily bring through much precipitation.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN BRAZIL THINNING OUT THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers continue in Brazil for the next couple of days, but those showers will thin out by this weekend and will likely be more isolated through next week for much of the safrinha corn areas as well as the south. Conditions are mixed for safrinha corn so far, and there is roughly a month left to the wet season. Any dry time now is unfavorable for the crop.

SHOWERS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

More showers will be possible in Argentina on Friday and over the weekend with some additional showers south next week. Crop conditions have stabilized after recent rains. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn and the beginning of soybeans, or heading toward maturity. Only a shrinking fraction of the crop can still benefit from rainfall. Drier conditions earlier this year have already taken their toll on production.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system continues into southeastern Europe through the weekend, producing beneficial scattered showers. A few fronts will move through the northwest with showers this weekend into early next week as well. Outside of some dryness concerns in the northeast and some wetness concerns in the southwest, conditions are overall favorable for winter wheat as well as corn planting and early growth as that increases in April.

RAIN INCREASING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION THIS WEEKEND

Patchy dryness still exists in the Black Sea region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. A system will spin through the region this weekend into next week, which would promote scattered showers and more favorable conditions.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA WATCHING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE

A front has gone through eastern Australia with some showers this week, which may disrupt the cotton and sorghum harvest. Meanwhile, Western Australia will be watching Tropical Cyclone Narelle this weekend, which may produce heavy rain and some structural damage for some areas. Both areas will need some rain prior to winter wheat and canola planting, which starts in April, so overall these two events should be regarded as beneficial.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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