Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Up-and-down temperatures across the U.S., growing drought in the Central and Southern Plains but an increase in precipitation next week, and rainfall for parts of Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST

A couple of fronts have been hanging out across the north this week where showers have been spotty. But a stronger front will move through the Midwest on Thursday with another round of colder air and scattered showers. The colder air will be very brief, however. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which would increase potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought ahead of spring planting.

DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL NEXT WEEK

Temperatures again are rising quite significantly in the Central and Southern Plains for Wednesday before another strong front moves through on Thursday and Friday with another round of cooler air. Temperatures continue on the rollercoaster ride with rising readings next week. Despite the fronts, precipitation is very limited to non-existent, which is causing drought to expand across the region, especially in the west. The weather pattern will get more active next week, but that does not guarantee precipitation for some of the driest areas. Winter wheat conditions are falling significantly and soil moisture conditions are not favorable for many areas for spring planting.

UP-AND-DOWN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Northern Plains on Wednesday with some northern showers. A front will move through on Thursday with a few more and a round of cooler air that will be very brief. Temperatures should rise on Saturday and the weather pattern will be more active next week as a couple of systems will make their way through. Eventually, some colder air is likely to move in later next week, which could make for some snow. The region would certainly welcome some precipitation ahead of spring planting.

DRIER IN THE DELTA

Recent dry conditions are turning the momentum around toward building drought instead of reducing it, which is already widespread across the Delta region. While this will make fieldwork very easy, it will not be favorable for early growth as soil moisture is becoming limited again after some good rain in early March. The pattern looks to be a bit more active next week and into early April, but may not necessarily bring through much precipitation.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN BRAZIL THINNING OUT THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers continue in Brazil for the next couple of days, but those showers will thin out by this weekend and will likely be more isolated through next week for much of the safrinha corn areas as well as the south. Conditions are mixed for safrinha corn so far, and there is roughly a month left to the wet season. Any dry time now is unfavorable for the crop.

SHOWERS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

More showers will be possible in Argentina later this week and weekend, but will shift to the south for next week. Crop conditions have stabilized after recent rains. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn, or heading toward maturity, such as early-planted soybeans. So the rainfall is only somewhat helpful. Drier conditions earlier this year have already taken their toll on production.

EUROPE GETTING MORE ACTIVE AGAIN

A system will drop through Europe on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread showers. The system should continue across the southeast through the weekend. Overall, the pattern may be getting a little busier again as more systems are forecast to move into the continent next week with a target for the eastern half of the continent. Outside of some dryness concerns in the northeast and some wetness concerns in the southwest, conditions are overall favorable for winter wheat as well as corn planting and early growth as that increases in April.

RAIN INCREASING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION THIS WEEKEND

Patchy dryness still exists in the Black Sea region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. Some spotty showers will be possible this week, but the general trend has been drier this month. A system may spin through the region this weekend into next week, which would promote scattered showers and more favorable conditions.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA WATCHING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE

A front will go through eastern Australia with some showers over the next few days, which may disrupt the cotton and sorghum harvest. Meanwhile, Western Australia will be watching Tropical Cyclone Narelle this weekend, which may produce heavy rain and some structural damage for some areas. Both areas will need some rain prior to winter wheat and canola planting, which starts in April, so overall these two events should be regarded as beneficial.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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