Ag Weather Forum

Widespread thunderstorms and severe weather have occurred since last Friday, March 6, across the middle of the country, a sign that spring is definitely in the air. That threat continues for Tuesday and Wednesday, March 10-11, as a pair of disturbances cross the U.S. in tandem. All severe hazards are on the table, which includes large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and a risk of localized flooding.

It is a little unusual for two disturbances to create severe weather at the same time, but that is just what is on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday. A northern disturbance moving through the Northern Plains will tap into some warm and moist air over the Midwest during the afternoon and evening hours, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms. The greatest risk of severe weather will occur from northern Missouri into northern Indiana. The greatest risks will be extremely large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and multiple tornadoes.

Farther south, an upper-level cutoff low over northern Mexico is also moving its way eastward throughout the day, though is slightly behind the disturbance to the north. Regardless, as the low moves into Texas and Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are expected to erupt as well. Though a few tornadoes may be possible, the risk here is for large hail over 3 inches in diameter and wind gusts over 65 mph.

Between the two disturbances, the severe threat is a little more uncertain. However, it will see increased potential during the overnight hours across the Ozarks. That is especially true if thunderstorms form clusters or line segments from the earlier activity to the north and south. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible in any storms that can stay together overnight from northeastern Oklahoma through the Lower Ohio Valley.

For Wednesday, the two disturbances will not be quite as strong, but will still maintain a severe threat from southeastern Texas up through Pennsylvania. Again, the greatest risks will come in two sections, with the northern portion increasing the severe potential across the upper Ohio Valley and the southern portion enhancing potential across Louisiana and the adjacent areas of Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Wednesday afternoon will have the greatest risks, though severe storms may be ongoing from the overnight activity. Hail will be less of a risk for Wednesday, though tornadoes and strong winds will continue to be significant threats. Some small chance for severe thunderstorms may still be possible across the coastal areas of the Carolinas, Georgia, and northern Florida for Thursday, though the risk is much lower.

To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.