Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Three separate systems moving through the Central and Northern U.S. that will decrease drought, and limited rainfall in Argentina's driest areas are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

The pattern stays very active in the Midwest with a big system for Tuesday and Wednesday that will produce widespread rain and thunderstorms that could be severe. Another system will produce a mix of rain and snow for Thursday and Friday with another this weekend, which may produce some heavy snow across the north. Another disturbance will move through in the middle of next week with a mix of rain and snow as well. Recent and forecast precipitation will help to reduce drought across much of the region.

ANOTHER BIG STORM FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stronger system will move through the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday with stronger storms and heavier rain in the southeast. Multiple systems will follow for later this week, weekend, and next week, but will target Nebraska over the rest of the region and even then may not bring much precipitation. Drier areas in the southwest are becoming concerning for winter wheat, particularly in the Texas Panhandle, while drought areas in the southeast got some improvement, creating mixed conditions.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The weather pattern will be chaotic in the Northern Plains through next week, with multiple systems moving through. Some heavy precipitation will be possible, including heavy snow. There are some drier areas that need some precipitation before spring planting commences and will get it, but there are likely areas that will not and we could see drought growing there.

DELTA SEEING DROUGHT REDUCTION

Areas of heavy rain fell in the Delta over the weekend and Monday, which has eased the drought but not eliminated it by any means with large deficits still in place for many areas. Another system will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region through Wednesday. The focus will then shift northward for the weekend and next week, however, giving another unfavorable break in the rainfall.

RAINFALL SPREADING THROUGH CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers have filled back in across the middle of Brazil, being more favorable for newly planted safrinha corn. That should continue for most areas this week, though some in the northeast and far south will not see nearly as much. Soil moisture is still on the low side and there is limited time to stack soil moisture before the wet season rainfall shuts down in the next 6-8 weeks.

DRIEST AREAS OF ARGENTINA SEEING LITTLE RAINFALL

Spotty showers continue to be possible across Argentina this week, but with very few areas seeing anything of consequence. Spots in the southeast are particularly dry and in need of rainfall. A front is forecast to move through this weekend with more widespread precipitation, but time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact for filling corn and soybeans.

SPAIN STILL VERY WET, EASTERN EUROPE DRIER

A system continues to bring widespread precipitation to Spain on Tuesday, which has been very wet this winter. Though some showers will move through France and the UK, the rest of Europe is likely to be drier this week, somewhat unfavorable for winter wheat that is starting to awaken from dormancy at least across central areas. Northern Germany and Poland are in need of some more moisture before that happens.

GETTING DRIER IN THE BLACK SEA REGION AGAIN

Drier conditions are returning to the Black Sea region after some limited coverage and amounts over the last couple of months. Patchy dryness still exists in the region. Higher temperatures moving in this week will awaken some of the southern areas from dormancy. More precipitation would be preferred.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Recent heavy rain has improved soil moisture, but also caused some flooding in eastern Australia. Drier weather is forecast this week, which should be more beneficial for cotton and sorghum to recover.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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