Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Scattered rain showers still appear widespread across central Brazil with drier conditions returning to Argentina. The storm track favors the northern and eastern U.S. this week with warmer temperatures building in the Plains. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Monday.

COOLER START TO THE WEEK IN THE MIDWEST

Snowpack is extremely low across most of the region, and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good about soil moisture. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring. Quick-hitting systems will move through this week, and a midweek system could drop a streak of light snow across the region. Temperatures will only make a brief recovery during the end of the week as they rise above average before cooling off over the weekend.

PRECIPITATION MISSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

Strong winds and dry soils have led to elevated wildfire conditions lately. Light snow showers fell across southwest Nebraska and Kansas last Friday, but showers have been relatively limited across the Central and Southern Plains. Soil moisture is not all that favorable for winter wheat, especially across the west, and drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas prior to spring planting. A warmup is expected this week before cooler temperatures return by the weekend. Showers will continue to be limited this week, mainly tagging northern areas.

CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Sub-zero temperatures developed across the area this past weekend but only a brief warm up is expected this week before another round of cooler temperatures arrive by the end of the week. Clipper systems will move through at a steady pace this week, but showers will be light. Drought increased on Thursday's drought monitor, but the more active storm track should help to raise snowpack and soil moisture.

SOME RELIEF IN WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA

Water levels along the Mississippi River are still low and more moisture will be needed to ease the drought that is very widespread through the Delta prior to spring planting. As storm systems pass to the north this week, runoff from tributaries could continue to feed into the river. A cold front will swing through late this week across the Delta, but any heavier rain will likely remain across the Southeast.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL

Over the weekend, showers started increasing in coverage across central Brazil while fronts from Argentina produced widespread showers in southern Brazil. Showers are favorable for newly planted safrinha corn. Through the middle of this week, showers will remain widespread across central Brazil before turning isolated late this week into the upcoming weekend. The country needs the rain as subsoil moisture continues to be low for this time of year and will be counted on for the coming safrinha corn crop.

DRIER CONDITIONS COULD RETURN IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEK

Showers moved through at a steady pace last week and this past weekend, but throughout this week, they'll become more isolated and mostly dry conditions could return to some areas. Rain has stabilized corn conditions, but soybeans continue to fall and are now rated similar to last year's disappointing campaign. It is getting too late for much of the early-planted crop and is continuing to exert pressure on the later-planted crop as well. With drier conditions forecast this week, that could be a larger problem, since February is now coming in with lower-than-normal rainfall like January for many areas.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN EASTERN EUROPE

Spain received a break in the wet pattern last week while storms continued to sweep across northern and eastern areas. This week's pattern will be less active across the continent as high pressure builds in after Monday. By late this week into the upcoming weekend, more fronts from the Atlantic will enter western areas but showers could become more isolated as the fronts drift east. Conditions have been largely favorable for winter crops. However, if the pattern remains active through March, some areas may be too wet and spring planting delays are possible.

RAINFALL INCREASING IN SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA

A stalled front provided beneficial rainfall to cotton and sorghum in the fill stage across southeast Australia this past weekend. Otherwise, precipitation has largely been favoring northern Australia so far this year. This week into early March, showers may redevelop across southern and eastern Australia while Western Australia remains dry.

ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS TO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CHINA THIS WEEK

Soil moisture is very low across southeast China while central and northern areas have adequate soil moisture, even though showers have been limited the past few months. Once wheat and canola start awakening from dormancy in the next month or two, they will need more precipitation. This week, showers look widespread across the southeast and central, but the North China Plain will likely miss out as systems pass by to the south.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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