DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the East with a ridge in the West. Early this week, a piece of a trough in northern Canada will pivot through the northern U.S., leading to clipper system moving through the Midwest. During the middle of the week, a piece of a trough from the East Pacific will sweep through the Plains and East and linger in the East through the end of the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Over the weekend, more pieces of energy from the northern Canadian trough could swing through the northern U.S.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar throughout this week but start to show differences in early March. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A ridge will build in the Southwest and it could eventually shift into the Southeast later next week. The trough in Canada could continue to send waves of energy through the northern U.S. during the first week of March, providing more rounds of cooler temperatures. With the ridge in the South, temperatures could remain above average.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...92 AT HOLLYWOOD, FL

LOW SUN...22 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...NORFOLK, VA 1.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the East with a ridge in the West. Early this week, a piece of a trough in northern Canada will pivot through the northern U.S., leading to clipper system moving through the Midwest. During the middle of the week, a piece of a trough from the East Pacific will sweep through the Plains and East and linger in the East through the end of the week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar throughout this week but start to show differences in early March. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Over the weekend, more pieces of energy from the northern Canadian trough could swing through the northern U.S. A ridge will build in the Southwest and it could eventually shift into the Southeast later next week. The trough in Canada could continue to send waves of energy through the northern U.S. during the first week of March, providing more rounds of cooler temperatures. With the ridge in the South, temperatures could remain above average.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Sub-zero temperatures developed across the area this past weekend but only a brief warm up is expected this week before another round of cooler temperatures arrive by the end of the week. Clipper systems will move through at a steady pace this week, but showers will be light. Drought increased on Thursday's drought monitor, but the more active storm track should help to raise snowpack and soil moisture.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Strong winds and dry soils have led to elevated wildfire conditions lately. Light snow showers fell across southwest Nebraska and Kansas last Friday, but showers have been relatively limited across the Central and Southern Plains. Soil moisture is not all that favorable for winter wheat, especially across the west, and drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas prior to spring planting. A warmup is expected this week before cooler temperatures return by the weekend. Showers will continue to be limited this week, mainly tagging northern areas.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Snowpack is extremely low across most of the region and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good about soil moisture. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring.

Quick-hitting systems will move through this week and a mid-week system could drop a streak of light snow across the region. Temperatures will only make a brief recovery during the end of the week as they rise above average before cooling off over the weekend.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels along the Mississippi River are still low and more moisture will be needed to ease the drought that is very widespread through the Delta prior to spring planting. As storm systems pass to the north this week, runoff from tributaries could continue to feed into the river. A cold front will swing through late this week across the Delta, but any heavier rain will likely remain across the Southeast.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Over the weekend, showers started increasing in coverage across central Brazil while fronts from Argentina produced widespread showers in southern Brazil. Showers are favorable for newly-planted safrinha corn. Through the middle of this week, showers will remain widespread across central Brazil before turning isolated late this week into the upcoming weekend. The country needs the rain as subsoil moisture continues to be low for this time of year and will be counted on for the coming safrinha corn crop.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers moved through at a steady pace last week and this past weekend, but throughout this week, they'll become more isolated and mostly dry conditions could return to some areas. Rain has stabilized corn conditions, but soybeans continue to fall and are now rated similar to last year's disappointing campaign. It is getting too late for much of the early-planted crop and is continuing to exert pressure on the later-planted crop as well. With drier conditions forecast this week, that could be a larger problem, since February is now coming in with lower-than-normal rainfall like January for many areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Spain received a break in the wet pattern last week while storms continued to sweep across northern and eastern areas. This week's pattern will be less active across the continent as high pressure builds in after Monday. By late this week into the upcoming weekend, more fronts from the Atlantic will enter western areas but showers could become more isolated as the fronts drift east. Conditions have been largely favorable for winter crops. However, if the pattern remains active through March, some areas may be too wet and spring planting delays are possible.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): The weather pattern could remain active into early March with multiple rounds of precipitation expected this week. Soil moisture is starting to recover in some areas, but there are still deficits in others. Temperatures remain mixed, but without threat from arctic bursts that would be damaging to wheat.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): A stalled front provided beneficial rainfall to cotton and sorghum in the fill stage across southeast Australia this past weekend. Otherwise, precipitation has largely been favoring northern Australia so far this year. This week into early March, showers may redevelop across southern and eastern Australia while Western Australia remains dry.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture is very low across southeast China while central and northern areas have adequate soil moisture, even though showers have been limited the past few months. Once wheat and canola start awakening from dormancy in the next month or two, they will need more precipitation. This week, showers look widespread across the southeast and central, but the North China Plain will likely miss out as systems pass by to the south.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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