Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Rain may spread into southern Argentina next week with shower coverage reduced across central Brazil, while portions of the southern U.S. could see heavy rain and thunderstorms this weekend. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

RAIN FAVORS THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

The threat of arctic cold has ended for a while as temperatures trend warmer throughout the region, but snowpack in the east could keep temperatures a bit closer to average. However, the weather pattern will become more active, and the chance of bigger storms will be elevated for next week. Southern areas are favored by a system this weekend while northern areas could see multiple rounds of precipitation next week.

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat of cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. However, the pattern is becoming more active and there are at least some chances for precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Models are mixed on the impact but will likely be sporadic and not widespread. Some areas may see favorable precipitation while others are missed. The south is favored by a system this weekend.

BIGGER STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

Warm air has flooded the region and is forecast to continue into the middle of next week. Mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the rest of this week. Snow cover is basically gone except in the far northeast and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is potential for bigger storms, especially during the second half of next week. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow. Temperatures could also cool off late next week between the storms.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA THIS WEEKEND

Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the Midwest. That will eventually make it through the Mississippi River system as well. But water levels are low and will need a more active weather pattern to bring them up permanently. Some heavier rain will be possible in the Delta this weekend, but showers look more hit or miss going into next week, mainly favoring the Central Mississippi Valley.

REDUCED SHOWER COVERAGE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Heavy rain has been falling in central Brazil lately, which has been favorable for the last remaining filling soybeans, but has been a little troublesome for transport and fieldwork as producers switch from soybeans to safrinha corn. Heavier rain continues through the end of this week but will thin out this weekend into early next week. The country still needs these showers to produce a lot of rain since most of the country is behind and soil moisture is rated as low in many areas for this time of year.

SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

Showers will continue into the upcoming weekend, with the focus on central and northern areas while drier areas in the south will have less precipitation. However, the active weather situation is forecast to continue next week as well with widespread showers possibly developing across southern areas. Though the trend has been for worsening soil moisture and crop conditions over the last six weeks or so, some improvements will be made. That is too late for some of the corn and soybean crops that are more advanced, though.

STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BLACK SEA

The risk for winterkill on winter wheat will dissipate for now as warmer temperatures are favored into next week, although northern areas could see a few surges of cooler air. Systems have become more frequent and are easing some of the precipitation deficits in the region as well as providing more protective snow cover. More systems are forecast to bring meaningful precipitation for this weekend and next week, with rain in the south and snow in the north. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA DRYS OUT AS TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS SHIFT EAST

Dryness is still widespread across the country, but remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell provided pockets of heavier rain to Western Australia earlier this week. The remnants of Mitchell will continue to move through southern and eastern areas of the country the rest of this week, helping to ease some of the stress as well. Crop conditions are still overall poor for cotton and sorghum, but may be improving. Next week, showers look limited in the west with isolated showers in the south and east.

SHOWERS FAVORING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHINA

Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months, especially across southeast China. Shower chances are more frequent over the next couple of weeks, but with low amounts. The region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next month or two.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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