DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a ridge in the West. Clipper systems will impact the north with multiple rounds of light snow into the upcoming weekend.

Eventually a trough will build across the West this weekend, nudging the ridge into the center of the country.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A pattern change is expected after the middle of next week as waves of energy from the West drop into the Plains and Mississippi Valley, providing increased chances for rain and wintry precipitation.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Temperatures are trending warmer across the Central and Southern Plains, but as clipper systems move through the north, temperatures will fluctuate and dive below average at times. Throughout the weekend and early next week, warmer temperatures from the West will nudge towards the Mississippi Valley.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...79 AT 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ESCONDIDO, CA

LOW TUE...19 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...CARIBOU, ME 0.75 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a ridge in the West. Clipper systems will impact the north with multiple rounds of light snow into the upcoming weekend.

Eventually a trough will build across the West this weekend, nudging the ridge into the center of the country. A pattern change is expected after the middle of next week as waves of energy from the West drop into the Plains and Mississippi Valley, providing increased chances for rain and wintry precipitation.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Temperatures are trending warmer across the Central and Southern Plains, but as clipper systems move through the north, temperatures will fluctuate and dive below average at times. Throughout the weekend and early next week, warmer temperatures from the West will nudge towards the Mississippi Valley.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Temperatures have been fluctuating between above and below average as clipper systems tag the eastern Dakotas this week.

By late this weekend, a dramatic warm up is expected throughout most of the region that could last into at least early next week. Precipitation through the weekend is expected to remain relatively light with any quick-moving systems that pass through.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): After a quick cold spell earlier this week, temperatures will start recovering above average through the rest of the week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air has been awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns towards mid-January.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Clipper systems will continue to provide rounds of light snow to northern and eastern areas through the weekend and temperatures could dive below average behind some of these clippers. By early next week, a major warm up could develop before larger systems from the West start arriving mid-week. Another blast of Arctic air could redevelop closer to January 10.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Snowmelt across the Midwest brought a limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River last week, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. Showers will be limited through the weekend with the next large system not arriving until the middle of next week. More consistent precipitation is needed to bring water levels up.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Soybeans will continue to fill pods across central Brazil and this will accelerate in January. Rain showers will be more widespread across central Brazil through the upcoming weekend and showers also look to continue across southern Brazil, favorable for maturing corn. A brief break in the rain is possible late this weekend into early next week across southern Brazil and showers could become more scarce across east-central Brazil later next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Fronts have been moving through northern areas and providing consistent rainfall, favorable for pollinating corn. Despite a drier stretch of weather across the south, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, but moisture levels are falling. While a few isolated showers are possible in the north through the rest of the week, mostly dry conditions are expected in central and southern areas, which could increase stress on developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A larger system moves through Friday and Saturday across the southwest, benefiting vegetative wheat in Spain. Widespread showers could favor southern Europe late this weekend or early next week, favorable for vegetative winter wheat. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat. Temperatures will remain below average in the north before eventually spreading into southern Europe early next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Light snow showers favor Ukraine and southwest Russia throughout the rest of this week with some areas of heavy snow in the Caucasus.

Brief cold snaps through early next week could cause some winterkill in areas without adequate snow cover. Multiple large systems could move through Ukraine and southwest Russia during the first half of next week, increasing snow cover in some areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture is still mixed around the wheat belt. Wheat and canola harvest is nearing the end with overall favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is nearly completed and is finding some unfortunate dryness in a lot of areas, causing stress. Most precipitation favors eastern Australia going into next week with southern and western areas remaining relatively dry.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. A front from central China provided limited showers in eastern areas during the middle of this week. Very little is forecast going into early January, which may start to become a concern if the trend doesn't reverse over the winter.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers east Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal south and above normal north Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at Teresa.Wells@dtn.com

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