DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central with a trough moving through it in the Midwest, and one in the Southwest. The Midwest trough quickly moves east on Tuesday, with the ridge getting strong for the second half of the week.

However, the pattern will get really active with the Southwest trough moving east late this week and a clipper-like system across the north just ahead of it. Another trough will move into the Southwest late this week and move east early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and deliver a couple of pieces of energy eastward around Thanksgiving. That could be a game changer as we head into the end of November and beginning of December.

The U.S. and European models are similar this week, but have some differences for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system in the Southwest will move into the Southern Plains on Sunday and across the country for early next week. A system will move into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and a couple of systems may move through next week.

Temperatures should be warm through early next week, but a big burst of cold air is forecast to move through behind one of these systems and should spread eastward over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Models are in the process of trying to figure out how to develop all of this activity.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...94 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX AND RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...5 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...SAN FRANCISCO, CA 1.32 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central with a trough moving through it in the Midwest, and one in the Southwest. The Midwest trough quickly moves east on Tuesday, with the ridge getting strong for the second half of the week.

However, the pattern will get really active with the Southwest trough moving east late this week and a clipper-like system across the north just ahead of it. Another trough will move into the Southwest late this week and move east early next week. Another trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and deliver a couple of pieces of energy eastward around Thanksgiving.

That could be a game-changer as we head into the end of November and beginning of December.

The U.S. and European models are similar this week, but have some differences for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system in the Southwest will move into the Southern Plains on Sunday and across the country for early next week. A system will move into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and a couple of systems may move through next week.

Temperatures should be warm through early next week, but a big burst of cold air is forecast to move through behind one of these systems and should spread eastward over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Models are in the process of trying to figure out how to develop all of this activity.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers will be possible through Wednesday with a couple systems passing nearby. The same goes for a couple of systems this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will likely take a massive dive around Thanksgiving or just after as a big cold pattern is on the horizon.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through the region on Monday but with limited showers across the north. A stronger system will move in on Wednesday with widespread rainfall through Friday. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Yet another system is forecast to move in early next week with more showers. Though temperatures are forecast to be quite warm into next week, a big change may come on or just after Thanksgiving with a bigger system and a massive cold burst.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is bringing through scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday. A much bigger system will move through Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation. Another system is forecast for early next week that could be the start of a much colder pattern going into December. The rain will improve soil moisture for winter wheat and could reduce some of the drought in the region before that, though.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. A more active weather pattern is setting up for the rest of November, but that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region.

This could be the start of a more favorable weather pattern for the winter, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought a wave of heavy rainfall over the last couple of days. The front is stalling out in the north and showers will slowly build there back to the south through central Brazil later this week and weekend. Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through with widespread and mostly heavy precipitation over the weekend, which has continued to keep soil moisture high for early this growing season. However, this may be the last front that produces this type of widespread precipitation for a while. A front will move through Thursday into Friday, but is expected to have only patchy showers. The same goes for another next week. Soil conditions are currently favorable, but we may start to see those slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue across much of the continent going into next week. Temperatures are falling and some of these showers will fall as snow, which could be heavy later this week and weekend from Austria into southern Poland. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A couple of systems will move through this week, but are forecast to produce limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy across the north.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture conditions are still largely mixed across the country. Showers will favor western areas this week while eastern areas are forecast to be much drier. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Dry conditions are largely forecast through the end of November, helpful across the north but detrimental for the south.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday, some snow north. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday.

Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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