Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- While showers continue into next week across Argentina, above-average temperatures and relatively dry conditions add extra stress to crops in southern and eastern Brazil. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Friday.

COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

Warm temperatures have melted most of the snow that was still lingering in the region last week. A clipper system passes through the region on Friday, but showers will be limited, and gusty northwest winds are expected. Cooler temperatures will likely move through eastern areas behind a system this weekend. A larger system is forecast for the middle of next week that could provide a band of heavy snow and scattered rain showers, followed by milder air. After this system, a few quick bursts of rain and snow may move through late in the week.

SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK

Temperatures will be on the warmer side into early next week, which could promote greening of winter wheat. A small system will move into the region on Sunday with more potent showers across the south and a larger system is forecast for early-mid next week with more widespread showers. Temperatures will take a brief dip below normal later next week in the wake of the larger system, but the cold won't be as intense as the mid-February arctic blast.

LARGER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD PROVIDE MORE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The region could use more moisture ahead of spring planting as recent clipper systems provided very light and isolated precipitation this week. Mostly dry conditions are expected through the weekend along with warmer temperatures. A larger system from the West could provide more widespread showers early next week, but in the wake of this system, temperatures aren't expected to drop rapidly as they will still hover around or a few degrees above average.

RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN RETURNS TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA NEXT WEEK

Water levels should start falling this weekend, but barge traffic may still be slower with the flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. The risk for heavier rain and severe thunderstorms returns through the first half of next week with a cool down expected afterwards.

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BRAZIL SEEING MORE STRESS ON CROPS

Wet-season showers continue across west-central areas with spottier showers in the east and south. Showers this week have been making it tougher to finish up soybean harvest and the remaining safrinha corn planting. A similar pattern is expected for next week with showers favoring Mato Grosso. The spottier showers in southern and eastern areas are unfavorable for any immature full-season crops or newly planted safrinha crops.

SATURATED SOILS IN ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

Wet conditions from stalled fronts have reduced any further damage from the dry and hot conditions in early February. A parade of systems will continue to sweep across southern areas into next week with their fronts extending into central and northern Argentina. If showers linger for too long in some spots next week, soils may get too saturated ahead of harvest that will start later in March.

COLD AIR LINGERS IN SOUTHWEST RUSSIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK

Below-average temperatures continue across the region through at least early next week. Areas near the Caucuses, which do not have much protective snow cover have been and continue to be at risk for winterkill. Snowfall continues to be limited, and it will be light and spotty into the middle of next week before a larger system may move through at the end of the week. Drought continues to be a major concern as the winter crop should be awakening from dormancy over the next several weeks in mostly poor condition in the east. More precipitation is needed, but the prospects are low.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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