Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- While Argentina will see showers through the weekend, which should stabilize crop conditions, central Brazil will see much drier conditions next week that should be beneficial for fieldwork. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY

An active pattern is expected for eastern areas. Two more large systems are forecast through the region this weekend and next week, keeping the region busy, but also aiding some of the drought areas with increased precipitation. Cold air sits across the northwest and will pulse through the rest of the region at times behind these systems. The northwest may remain on the drier side as these systems work off to the south and east.

COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY

Below-average temperatures moved into the region and that cold will be a concern for uncovered winter wheat, which has had a couple of bouts of very cold air over the winter. Another system is possible over the weekend that could linger into early next week, but precipitation could be lighter. Wintry precipitation with this system could develop as far south as northern Texas. The snow would be helpful to cover up winter wheat, but livestock will need extra rations with the cold.

NORTHERN PLAINS REMAIN COLD INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK

Cold air continues to be stuck in the region for the next week, though we should see some moderation next weekend. The cold should cause additional stress and needed rations for livestock. Some light snow will move through at times, but heavy snow is not in the forecast. Drought continues to be a big issue as well.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THIS WEEKEND

Barge traffic may slow down with the recent heavy precipitation that has led to higher water levels and minor flooding along the Mississippi's tributaries. Another round of heavy rain and stronger thunderstorms is expected Saturday and will continue to lead to higher water levels and potential for flooding for the rest of the month. By next week, another system could move through and provide wintry precipitation to Arkansas or northern Mississippi.

WEATHER BECOMES BENEFICIAL FOR FIELDWORK IN CENTRAL BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers in central Brazil remain scattered through the rest of this week, but by next week, they could become much more isolated. That should allow for producers to continue to make progress on soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. That is needed because they are still well behind the normal pace and have less than two weeks in their window to complete safrinha corn planting before it is considered late. Heavy rain is possible across southern Brazil as a front could stall across the region this weekend into early next week.

SHOWERS COULD STABALIZE CROP CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Another front will be moving through Friday into Saturday and another early next week. The heaviest precipitation with this system favors the northeast once again while the lightest precipitation is expected across southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Some damage has already occurred for the corn and soybean crops, and there is no guarantee that the coming rain will be able to turn around conditions, but it should help to at least stabilize the crop.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven't been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture. A system will move through this weekend with some needed precipitation and potential snow cover. Cold temperatures may follow and there is some risk for exposed wheat in some areas. Another system could move through late next week as the pattern turns slightly more active.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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