Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A shift westward for meaningful showers in the southwestern Plains, good rainfall across central Brazil, but the possible end of good weather in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

WARM AIR RETURNING TO MIDWEST

Warm air continues to spread into the Midwest, with above-normal temperatures forecast through next week. A front will move into western areas on Friday and Saturday but is forecast to produce very little rainfall and fizzle out before getting eastward. We could see a burst of isolated showers moving through the region early next week, but that appears to be it until probably next weekend or early the following week. Conditions for harvest are still generally favorable, though areas that plant winter wheat would like to see more rain.

FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front and system are moving into the Central and Southern Plains on Friday and will finally bring some showers into the region, which could last through Monday with the heaviest rain in the far southwest. Winter wheat and livestock producers would welcome the rain, and models have some spotty areas of 1-2 inches being possible. Most areas of the region will see light or no rain, while harvest continues at a rather rapid pace.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front moved into the Northern Plains on Thursday with isolated showers that could last into Saturday. Another pulse of isolated showers is possible for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should generally be near or above normal through next week. Conditions are still good for harvest, though breezy winds at times could be a concern for wildfires in the dry conditions.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW

Water levels on the Mississippi River have become very low again, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next ten days, restrictions could last a long time.

WET SEASON RAINS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil. The late start has caused soybean planting to be behind significantly. We will have to see if producers can make up the gap in soybean planting or if there will be a significant portion of the crop that is planted late. They have until the end of October. If a significant portion of planting is late, the safrinha corn crop will be planted late as well, exposing more of it to the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for the remaining filling wheat.

ONE MORE SYSTEM IN ARGENTINA, THEN DRIER

Rainfall in Argentina this week has had good coverage and intensity, bringing needed rain for corn establishment and drought-stricken filling wheat. Another widespread rain event is forecast to move through early-to-mid next week. However, drier weather is forecast afterward. Soybean planting doesn't begin until November, but there could be issues with that if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks and rains dry up going into the new month.

MORE RAIN FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Rain has been moving through western Europe this week, being very heavy in France and northern Italy, creating flooding and harsh conditions for fieldwork and wheat establishment. Systems will be less intense with rainfall over the next week but still target wetter areas in the northwest and Italy with rainfall. Eastern areas have had a chance to dry out after recent heavy rain, and fieldwork and establishment are better there. It may be too dry in some areas that would like to see some rain though.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION GETTING SOME RAIN

Isolated showers may continue in eastern Ukraine and western Russia into the weekend with a system that has stalled out over the Black Sea. However, the drought situation continues to be very bad across the east despite the rain. Dry conditions are forecast for next week. With colder air moving into the region, frosts are starting to become more common and closing the window on the potential for good root establishment before winter. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system moving through Australia Thursday and Friday is spreading rain across needed areas in the south, but it will be drier next week with only limited rainfall. Some areas of dryness are seeing improvements while others fall behind in rainfall, making for mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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