Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Upcoming heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Francine for the Southern Delta, warm and largely dry conditions across the Corn Belt, and dry conditions across Brazil and Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF FALL ACROSS THE MIDWEST

Temperatures will continue to rise this week, becoming very warm and inducing stress in dry areas for immature corn and soybeans. Tropical Storm Francine will move into the Mississippi Valley later this week and could move into southern portions of the region. If it does, it would bring needed moisture in for winter wheat planting later this fall, and could improve water levels on the Mississippi River, but could disrupt early harvest. Northern areas will likely stay drier, not necessarily good for immature corn and soybeans that could use some additional rain.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some drier areas in the region could use some rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. But even with a system moving into the Northern Plains later this week, rainfall is forecast to be limited and rather spotty going through this weekend. A cold front could provide better chances for scattered showers by the middle of next week. Temperatures are favored to be above normal for the Central Plains but closer to normal for the Southern Plains through Thursday. By late this week and into much of next week, temperatures will climb above normal for the Southern Plains while remaining above normal for the Central Plains. For those with fieldwork to do, it should be rather good conditions, but not for the remaining filling corn and soybean crops.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS A CONCERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will be well above normal throughout the rest of this week. A system will try to move into the region by Thursday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to occur either in western Montana or north into Canada. Another burst could come through in the same areas during the first half of next week. Winds could be strong in some areas with these systems moving through, not favorable for harvest, and will generally dry out soils. The lack of precipitation could be disappointing for corn and soybeans that are behind developmentally.

FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS FROM FRANCINE ON THE WAY FOR THE DELTA

Tropical Storm Francine is expected to make landfall in southern Louisiana later Wednesday as a hurricane and provide heavy rainfall, gusty winds, thunderstorms, and pockets of flooding to the Southern Delta. Remnants of Francine will stall out in the Tennessee Valley later this week. That could cause damage and disrupt harvest, but increase water levels on the Mississippi River, which have fallen very low again. Scattered showers could continue across the Delta through early next week and temperatures are favored to be above normal across central areas.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS UNFAVORABLE FOR HARVEST IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Heat will continue to be in the region for most of the next two weeks, but a few systems could provide brief cool downs to southern areas at times. A system will develop in the Northern Plains by Thursday and will spread rain into the region later this week with showers becoming more spotty by the weekend. A similar system could do the same early-to-mid next week. The rainfall would not be favorable for the continued harvest but would help to reduce drought and build soil moisture for next season.

STALLED FRONT EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN BRAZIL LATER THIS WEEK

Another front will move north into the country with scattered showers on Thursday, lingering around the southern states into the weekend. That will help states like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, improve soil moisture for any immature wheat or corn and soybean planting. Heat north of this front continues to bake soils ahead of first-crop soybean planting and soil moisture through most of central Brazil is way too low to begin planting. Wet season rains typically do not start for another couple of weeks and may be late, which would push back planting by a couple of weeks, putting the safrinha season in jeopardy as well.

RAINFALL RETURNS TO ARGENTINA BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH

A front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday and bring showers, but very few areas are forecast to see meaningful rainfall. Most of the country continues to be dry, impacting developing winter wheat and delaying corn planting. There will be a brief break in the above normal temperatures from the middle to end of this week. Towards the second half of the upcoming weekend and into next week, above normal temperatures will return, which will evaporate more moisture out of soils. A stronger system providing more widespread showers may not arrive until the middle to end of next week.

EASTERN EUROPE BENEFITTING FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS

Heavy rainfall over the weekend was favorable for immature corn, but not for any intentions of winter wheat planting. Hot and dry conditions in the east have also been unfavorable. Scattered showers are expected in the east on Tuesday with another strong front dropping into the west. A piece of the western system will break off in southern Europe and eventually move into the east late this week. Scattered showers could linger across eastern Europe this weekend into early next week. While rainfall will be favorable for those eastern areas, temperatures will drop significantly and higher elevation frosts and snow will be possible, a sign of the coming season of more variable conditions.

SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN BLACK SEA BUT EASTERN AREAS STILL STRUGGLING WITH DRYNESS

A system moving through eastern Europe will largely wash out as it moves into the region this week, though western areas could see some scattered showers. Another front moving into Europe will have potential for showers in western areas later this week and weekend as well. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia, large winter wheat areas, will have very little potential for rainfall over the next couple of weeks. The window for effective winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in about three or four weeks.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

A system will move through eastern areas Tuesday and Wednesday and produce only pockets of rainfall, a little disappointing for some winter wheat and canola areas that could use some more rain. A front will push through this weekend, but not produce much precipitation. Colder air will move in across southern areas, however, and some areas across Victoria and New South Wales will be watched for frosts. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will still be favored across western areas through the upcoming weekend. Another front could produce more widespread showers to eastern areas towards the middle of next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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