Ag Weather Forum

A comparison between the United States Drought monitor from Aug. 6 to the most recent drought monitor, released Aug. 22, shows abnormally dry, moderate drought and severe drought expanding across northwest Texas. Widespread rainfall has been hard to come by with only spotty showers and storms moving through at times. High temperatures have been repeatedly approaching the 90s and often exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit as well. The combination of hot and dry conditions has led to an expanding drought in northwest Texas. With wheat planting right around the corner for northwest Texas, the dry soil may offer a poor start to newly planted wheat if more moisture doesn't arrive.

In the latest Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that was released by the USDA on Aug. 20, 65% of subsoil moisture was short to very short across Texas. Topsoil moisture had an even higher percentage with 75% rated short to very short. Typically, the Texas Panhandle starts planting wheat around the beginning of September while the Rolling Plains starts towards the end of September.

Since Aug. 1, isolated rainfall amounts in the northern Texas Panhandle have approached 2.5 to 4 inches in some spots, thanks to periodic, scattered thunderstorms. Farther south, locations near Lubbock have received around 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain since the beginning of August. Other areas have been less fortunate, with some counties across the Rolling Plains receiving less than 0.25 inch since Aug. 1.

On top of the hit-or-miss showers and storms, hot weather has been a significant factor in the expanding drought. Temperatures started out high at the beginning of the month with high temperatures approaching the low 100s in northwest Texas from Aug. 1-3. Through mid-August, high temperatures continued to reach the 90s to low 100s. This week, the National Weather Service issued excessive heat warnings for parts of the Rolling Plains as high temperatures were forecast to approach 110 degrees F.

Drier air and hot weather leads to higher evaporation rates as well. This is one of the main reasons for the expanding drought in northwest Texas during the past few weeks. Depletion of topsoil and subsoil moisture will accelerate if evaporation rates are high. Given that some portions of northwest Texas will begin planting wheat in a matter of a few weeks, the lack of topsoil and subsoil moisture is a concern.

Looking ahead at the forecast through the end of August, long-range weather models hint at periods of showers and storms moving into West Texas, but coverage of these showers may still be hit-or-miss. Into early September, an upper-air ridge may persist across the western U.S. which would keep moisture more limited. DTN is forecasting that precipitation may remain near normal for much of the Texas Panhandle, but farther south, precipitation is favored to be slightly below normal. As for temperatures, much of Texas is favored to have temperatures slightly above normal.

One factor that has more uncertainty, but also contributes to the precipitation forecast for Texas, is the chance for tropical storms or hurricanes. Here in the U.S., we are entering the peak of hurricane season, but some of the ingredients for tropical storms or hurricanes have not been favorable while others have. Sea-surface temperatures throughout the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico have been high enough to sustain tropical storms. Wind shear, or the change of wind speed and direction with height, has also been favorable in these areas. The lower the wind shear, the more likely a tropical storm can be sustained. One of the main reasons tropical storms have been infrequent across the Gulf of Mexico this summer is the lack of organized storms moving into the region. An organized storm is essential to forming a tropical storm or hurricane in addition to low wind shear and warmer sea-surface conditions.

While hot and dry conditions have not been beneficial for increasing soil moisture in Texas since the beginning of August, there are still some chances for precipitation into early September. Above-average temperatures are favored as well and if temperatures continue to peak in the 90s or low 100s through the beginning of September, areas that miss precipitation could see drought conditions worsen. More moisture will be critical for northern and western Texas through the beginning of September to ensure the wheat crop gets off to a good start.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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