DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
A closed low is entering the Upper Midwest with a ridge in the West that extends into the western Canadian Prairies. The ridge in the West and western Canadian Prairies will lead to temperatures remaining above normal, but the heat will not be as high as it was last week. As the closed low sinks further south and edges towards the Great Lakes, temperatures will cool off in the North-Central U.S. towards the middle of the week.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:Wet conditions are expected throughout the Southern Plains and Southeast late this week and into the weekend as a cold front lingers in these areas.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar so I will favor a blend.
A trough could linger in the East and Central U.S. during the first half of next week, undercutting a ridge in the eastern Canadian Prairies. The ridge in the Canadian Prairies will move east and weaken, allowing a closed low from the Gulf of Alaska to enter western Canada. Temperatures will be below normal for much of the Central and Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley for the weekend and early next week. Above-normal temperatures are still favored in the West with little signs of the ridge breaking down.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:HIGH MON...119 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA
LOW MON...35 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MADISON, WI 2.70 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:A closed low is entering the Upper Midwest with a ridge in the West that extends into the western Canadian Prairies. The ridge in the West and western Canadian Prairies will lead to temperatures remaining above normal, but the heat will not be as high as it was last week. As the closed low sinks further south and edges towards the Great Lakes, temperatures will cool off in the North-Central U.S. towards the middle of the week.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar so I will favor a blend.
Wet conditions are expected throughout the Southern Plains and Southeast late this week and into the weekend as a cold front lingers in these areas. A trough could linger in the East and Central U.S. during the first half of next week, undercutting a ridge in the eastern Canadian Prairies. The ridge in the Canadian Prairies will move east and weaken, allowing a closed low from the Gulf of Alaska to enter western Canada. Temperatures will be below normal for much of the Central and Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley for the weekend and early next week. Above-normal temperatures are still favored in the West with little signs of the ridge breaking down.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few areas across the Dakotas received damage from strong to severe storms this past weekend. Scattered showers and storms remain possible early this week with drier conditions returning later in the week. Temperatures will trend cooler this week and scattered rain showers may return for the weekend. Conditions are fair for crops, but severe storms have not been favorable as corn starts to silk and soybeans start setting pods.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas across Kansas and Oklahoma could use more moisture, which may arrive mid-week.
As a cold front shifts south later in the week, isolated to scattered showers and storms return to the Southern Plains and temperatures are expected to cool down behind the front. Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the Central and Southern Plains by the end of the week and will persist through the weekend. Scattered showers and storms will linger across these regions this weekend which could reduce the drought across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Texas.
MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Strong to severe storms led to spotty crop damage over the weekend but more widespread severe storms impacted the Midwest on Monday. Widespread showers and storms remain likely Tuesday with conditions trending drier for most by Thursday as a cold front sags south, and high pressure returns. Cooler temperatures will arrive by the middle of this week and expand across much of the region by Friday. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for developing crops, but southeastern areas could use more rainfall and severe storms are creating swaths of crop damage.
DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): An active pattern is likely this week with showers favoring northern areas early in the week before shifting south during the second half of the week. The active pattern could lead to some fields of soybeans being too wet as beans continue to set pods. Temperatures are favored to be above normal early this week with a cool down by Thursday or Friday.
Cooler temperatures could last into early next week as well.
CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Warmer conditions last week and scattered showers and storms this past weekend were favorable for developing wheat and canola. Showers this week will be much more isolated with some areas likely remaining mostly dry. Temperatures are also expected to be above normal for western areas this week, which could lead to drought expanding if they missed showers this past weekend.
BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): With areas in southern Brazil recovering from recent heavy rainfall last week, winter wheat planting and development are behind. Drier conditions will return across southern Brazil through the rest of this week and possibly into this weekend. Central Brazil has been making steady progress on safrinha corn harvest and this will likely continue this week with mild and dry conditions. Southern Brazil will likely make more progress on safrinha corn harvest this week as compared to the last few weeks.
ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Frosts and mostly dry conditions were unfavorable for developing wheat last week. More soil moisture is needed for the developing crop. Rainfall chances won't increase until late this week or this weekend with remnants of a cold front moving across northern Argentina. There is still some uncertainty on how widespread the showers will be late in the week.
Temperatures will become more seasonable this week after the well below normal temperatures last week.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Northwest Europe has been dealing with wet conditions, making it difficult for wheat harvest. Conditions will trend drier through the rest of the week for northwest areas, which is favorable for harvest. A few showers are expected to impact southeast areas during the middle to end of the week and temperatures will remain above normal. Precipitation remains below normal in the southeast and above normal temperatures may cause drought to expand for some if they miss showers this week.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Rainfall largely remained north of the region last week and temperatures were well above normal, leaving more opportunities for drought to expand. Towards the middle of this week, a cold front could provide some scattered showers to western areas. Precipitation may largely miss southern and northeast areas and temperatures are expected to be above normal. Dry conditions are favorable for wheat harvest but unfavorable for maturing corn.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through last week, benefiting maturing wheat. Cooler temperatures will linger in eastern areas through the mid-week and low temperatures could approach freezing, lending to a risk for frost in parts of New South Wales. Another front will move into Western Australia by the middle of the week and provide widespread showers. The front will eventually swing through southern Australia towards the end of the week. Overall, crops and soil moisture are in fair condition, but the periodic showers will need to be maintained for maturing small grain.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.
East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast:
West: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.
East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.
Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Isolated to scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.
Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.
Brazil Soybeans and Corn...
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.
Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.
Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.
Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.
John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com
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