DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...127 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...30 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...CARIBOU, ME 2.14 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A trough is weakening in the East. A ridge persists in the West and is leading to record-breaking temperatures. Another ridge is expanding in the Western Atlantic, lending to the weakening of the eastern trough. Even with the ridge from the West nudging east into the Plains this weekend, pieces of energy will move across southern Canada and provide scattered showers and storms to the Midwest into early next week. Above-average temperatures will expand across much of the U.S. this weekend and early next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar through at least the middle of next week with differences towards the end of next week. I will favor the European.

Towards the middle of next week, a trough will expand across eastern Canada and extend into the Midwest, leading to persistent chances for rain. Cooler temperatures could return to the Central U.S. with warmer temperatures persisting in the West and East. Another ridge from the western U.S. and Canadian Prairies could build across the North-Central U.S. late next week, providing drier and warmer conditions. A part of the trough in the East may linger through next weekend and lead to wet conditions in the Southeast and South-Central U.S.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas received drier conditions this week which helped soils dry out after late June's heavy rainfall. Through the weekend and into the middle of next week, a few systems from Canada or the Northern Rockies could slide into the region. Some strong to severe storms may accompany showers this weekend. Conditions remain generally favorable for developing crops, but storms could provide localized heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Drier conditions may return late next week. Above normal temperatures will persist through this weekend with cooler temperatures returning next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Remnants of Beryl left wet conditions in the Southeast Plains. Showers will remain isolated across the Central Plains into early next week and some areas across Kansas and Oklahoma could use more moisture. Conditions trend warmer this weekend, with temperatures remaining above normal across the Central Plains into early next week. Temperatures will be more seasonable in Texas. Isolated to scattered showers and storms return to the Central and Southern Plains during the second half of next week and cooler temperatures will also arrive.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some areas in the eastern Midwest received localized wind damage and heavy rain from remnants of Beryl earlier this week. Periods of showers and storms are likely throughout the region into early next week, but some areas may stay mostly dry. A few storms could be strong to severe this weekend. Warmer temperatures will arrive through the weekend into early next week as high temperatures approach the upper 80s to low 90s. Drier and cooler conditions may develop throughout next week across the region after a strong cold front moves through.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Heavy rain from Beryl helped relieve drought in northern Arkansas this week while leaving parts of Missouri too wet. Pop-up, daytime showers and storms remain possible throughout the region into early next week. Warmer temperatures will build across northern areas this weekend.

Temperatures will likely remain above normal for northern and central areas into early next week. Scattered showers become more likely across Central and Southern later next week with a cold front stalling out. The active pattern could lead to some fields of soybeans being too wet as beans continue to set pods.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Warmer temperatures are helping canola and wheat grow, especially across western areas. Above normal temperatures in western areas will persist into early next week, but temperatures will remain more seasonable farther east. Rounds of scattered showers and storms may develop this weekend and early next week as pieces of energy from a system near Alaska break off and dip south. With the warmer temperatures lingering into next week, areas that miss showers may see drought conditions expand, especially as conditions trend drier later next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): With areas in southern Brazil still recovering from recent heavy rainfall, winter wheat planting and development are behind. Wet conditions will continue across southern Brazil through early next week with conditions finally trending drier for the second half of next week. Central Brazil will remain drier and warmer. While temperatures will remain cool in southern Brazil this weekend, the risk of frost is minimal.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Cold and dry conditions have plagued Argentina and soil moisture across the country is low for winter wheat establishment. High pressure will keep conditions mostly dry into the middle of next week. Cold temperatures will continue into this weekend with any widespread frosts also being unfavorable for wheat. By late next week, better chances for scattered showers may arrive with a cold front sweeping through.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Wet conditions remain a concern across Germany and France as producers try to harvest wheat between showers. A few more systems and fronts will move through northwest Europe through early next week, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere outside of the southeast. The southeast is much hotter and drier and is in need of more moisture. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around. Conditions may trend drier in western Europe later next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): The main storm track has stayed north of the Black Sea region this week and that may continue into early next week.

Large rainfall deficits still remain a concern this season. By late next week, western areas could see better chances for rain which may benefit the corn crop but rainfall is too late to benefit the wheat.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Isolated showers continue in southern areas through the weekend and early next week. A cold airmass will build across the east and linger through much of next week. Low temperatures could approach freezing, lending to a risk for frost in parts of New South Wales. Another front could move into Western Australia by the middle of next week and provide widespread showers. Overall, crops and soil moisture are in fair condition but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Monday, near normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Scattered showers south Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal north and below normal south Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures below normal south and near normal north.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures below normal south and near normal north through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers far south. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers far south through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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