Call the Market

It's normal for the cattle complex to coast through the 4th of July holiday week as typically the fed cash cattle market is softening, beef demand is walking back from having made its seasonal high in late May or early June, and online feeder cattle video sales make their big summertime showing later in the month. But as we've learned time and time again this year, 2024 just simply isn't your typical "normal" year.

What a baffling predicament it is to try to predict when boxed beef prices COULD seasonally top! I understand this week's developments with a major packing plant in Kansas being dark all week because of roof damage from heavy rain has tightened product availability and given the boxed beef prices another leg up; but the market wasn't struggling from a lack of demand even before that!

Once boxed beef prices do mark their seasonal top, I believe the cash complex could begin to see greater pushback from packers and the cash market could undergo some summertime pressure. But given how thin supplies are of market-ready cattle and how committed feedlots are right now to marketing their cattle to their utmost potential, I don't believe this will be a year in which summertime prices fall astronomically.

And if the cash cattle complex is able to keep the majority of its strength and momentum through the summer, how will that affect upcoming feeder cattle sales? At the first big Superior video auction of the summer (The Corn Belt Classic) steer prices were anywhere from $0.17 to $0.30 higher than just a year ago. After this week, the market will have ample opportunities to tell us just how prices are going to shake out as Superior is set to host their Week in the Rockies online sale July 8 through July 12, where 309,638 head of cattle are cataloged to sell. And following that sale, Northern Livestock Video Auction will host their online Summertime Classic sale which will again be another tremendous opportunity to see exactly what the 2024 feeder cattle market is capable of.

I know the world and its troubles can be heavy at times and, even though I hate to admit it, even the state of our own country isn't what we'd like it to be. But I pray that you spend Thursday, the 4th of July, celebrating our great nation and rekindle the thankfulness that we all ought to have for the Stars and Stripes! And I pray you can come back to next week's market recharged and ready to see all this bull market has got to offer.

Happy 4th of July friends!

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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