Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. with needed showers in the Southern Plains and another for next week, and widespread showers in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SOIL MOISTURE BUILDING IN MIDWEST

A storm system will move across the Midwest through Saturday with more widespread precipitation and chances for snow in some areas and another system is forecast for the end of next week. Recent and forecasted rainfall should help with building moisture, especially in the Ohio Valley. Temperatures remain warm going into mid-March and may coax some early planting across the south in the next couple of weeks if the forecast is benign. However, colder temperatures are forecast for the last 10 days or so of the month.

ONE SYSTEM LEAVING, ANOTHER COMING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system continues to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Central and Southern Plains that will exit on Friday. That also includes some pockets of snow, mostly through Nebraska. Another system will move through in the middle to end of next week with more widespread showers as well. Both will help to replace soil moisture losses due to higher winds and temperatures that have sapped it from the topsoil recently, beneficial for wheat where the showers hit.

NORTHERN PLAINS TEMPERATURES RISING THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures will rise in the Northern Plains this weekend. It will be drier overall until midweek with another system moving in. Models disagree on precipitation coverage with this system but clippers are likely to follow it for the second half of March, which could be more beneficial but also bring in some colder air again.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH DELTA

Above-normal temperatures continue in the Delta through mid-March while a system brings more rainfall through the region Friday and another does so later next week. The combination of good soil moisture and warm temperatures may coax some early planting in the region over the next couple of weeks. However, a burst of colder air is likely to come in later this month, which could turn around ideas for early planting.

OVERALL GOOD SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Wet season showers in central Brazil continue to be widely scattered into next week, favorable for emerging safrinha corn. A pair of fronts in southern Brazil will continue to keep this region active into the weekend. It may be drier for most of next week, but another front is forecast to move through later next week as well. All of the recent and forecast rainfall favors an increase in soil moisture for immature long-season crops and for the newly planted safrinha corn.

ACTIVE PERIOD FOR ARGENTINA

Several fronts will bring waves of showers through Argentina going through next week and could be heavy in eastern areas of the country. The rainfall should be favorable for most areas but is also scattered enough that it may miss some key areas across the south that could use some more rain. The overall pattern is favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, however.

WHEAT AWAKENING IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

A front coming down from the north will bring in some cooler air to the Black Sea region this weekend and next week, but models are keeping anything intense farther north and east. Any drop in temperatures should not have a dramatic effect on wheat which is still awakening from dormancy for the most part. Instead, a system will move through next week that should spread more meaningful moisture for the crop that is already in good condition.

MORE RAIN FOR EUROPE

A large low-pressure system will slowly spread into and through most of Europe going into next week, bringing widespread areas of showers. Models have backed off on the threat of colder air moving into eastern areas for next week. Conditions are mostly favorable as wheat continues to exit dormancy in many areas. France continues to be too wet though.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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