Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

Temperatures have generally been above normal, and conditions have remained on the drier side across the Canadian Prairies much of this winter due to the presence of El Nino. El Nino occurs when well-above-normal sea-surface temperatures are observed across the tropical Pacific Ocean

Earlier this week, temperatures came crashing down across the Canadian Prairies. This cooler air may stick around into much of next week as heavy snowfall is forecast this weekend, which could lead to a rough start for spring calving in the Canadian Prairies.

On Monday and Tuesday, a low-pressure system drifted across southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba, providing light precipitation to these areas. However, a strong cold front followed by high pressure sent temperatures plummeting between Monday and Tuesday.

For example, near Regina, Saskatchewan, a temperature of minus 1 degrees Celsius (31 degrees Fahrenheit) was reported on Monday morning and by Tuesday morning, a temperature of minus 24 C (minus 11 F) was reported. This equates to a 23-degree C (42-degree F) temperature drop in 24 hours.

Besides the low air temperatures, wind chills Tuesday and Wednesday morning approached minus 28 to minus 37 C (minus 20 to minus 35 F) across the Canadian Prairies. Temperatures this cold will cause added stress to newborn calves since it takes more energy to keep them warm.

However, these brutally cold temperatures won't be going away anytime soon as the forecast temperatures for this weekend will show little improvement.

During this weekend into early next week, DTN is forecasting temperatures to approach well-below normal across the Canadian Prairies. On Sunday, southern Saskatchewan could see temperatures approach 8-11 degrees C (14-20 degrees F) below normal. Sunday morning's low temperatures are expected to approach 3-8 C (5-15 F) in southern Saskatchewan.

To add to the low temperatures, a significant low-pressure system is forecast to enter the Prairies this weekend and dump significant amounts of snow. Increasing the snowpack will allow for below-normal temperatures to linger into next week.

A low-pressure system is currently entering the Pacific Northwest on Friday and this system is expected to move east throughout the weekend. As the system moves east, snow showers will build in coverage across Western Canada Saturday. By Sunday, snow showers will expand across much of the Prairies with a wintry mix or freezing rain possible in southern Manitoba. The low-pressure system will start to exit the Canadian Prairies on Monday, leaving behind some scattered snow showers throughout the day.

By the time this system is all said and done, southern Saskatchewan could be buried under at least 25 centimeters (10 inches) of snow. Some models on Friday have even hinted at isolated higher amounts up to 50 cm (20 inches) near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Southwest Manitoba could see above 30 cm (12 inches) of snow through Monday as well.

Deep snow and low temperatures pose a significant risk to cattle producers in the Canadian Prairies as they enter the spring calving season. The spring calving season in the Prairies typically runs from March through May and it will be kicked off with a large snowstorm that could add extra stress on newborn calves which means more work for Canadian livestock producers.

One of the best ways to prepare for the cold and snow during calving is to move cows indoors or into corrals with windbreaks. However, some ranchers may not have this option. DTN's livestock market analyst, ShayLe Stewart, noted "when mother-nature rolls in a snowstorm that man can't fully wrestle with, giving cattle ample feed and plenty of bedding seems to be the only thing to do until the storm passes." This is especially true when cows are calving.

Canadian ranchers will have to be on the lookout and monitoring their herds closely this weekend as heavy snow and cold temperatures hit the Prairies. It will be important to make sure that any newborn calves are getting dried off quickly and that they have access to dry bedding and colostrum within the first few hours after being born. This will ensure that the calf can get off to a healthy start even though the weather may be unfavorable.

To see a DTN story about steps to take when calving in cold weather, see https://www.dtnpf.com/….

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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