DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge over the Central and Eastern U.S. with a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, another in the Canadian Prairies, and a larger trough off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will continue east, combining with the disturbance in the Gulf across the East this weekend. The western trough will finally shift eastward this weekend and next week while a ridge builds up in the West behind it.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough is likely to head into the West later next week and then through the U.S. while the eastern trough pulls northeast into eastern Canada. That will get sucked into a larger trough that will build over Hudson Bay the following week.

The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details, especially with temperatures. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be falling below normal as a system continues to press through the Eastern U.S. with widespread precipitation. The cold could be significant in some areas and there is some potential for a system to ride along the cold front across southern and eastern areas of the country later next week with scattered showers of its own.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...80 COTULLA, TX

LOW WED...5 AT DANIEL, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 2.94 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge over the Central and Eastern U.S. with a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, another in the Canadian Prairies, and a larger trough off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will continue east, combining with the disturbance in the Gulf across the East this weekend. The western trough will finally shift eastward this weekend and next week while a ridge builds up in the West behind it. A trough is likely to head into the West later next week and then through the U.S. while the eastern trough pulls northeast into eastern Canada. That will get sucked into a larger trough that will build over Hudson Bay the following week.

The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details, especially with temperatures. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be falling below normal as a system continues to press through the Eastern U.S. with widespread precipitation. The cold could be significant in some areas and there is some potential for a system to ride along the cold front across southern and eastern areas of the country later next week with scattered showers of its own.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It will be windy Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. A system will track to the south this weekend, but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas. Cooler temperatures will follow it next week, perhaps significantly so.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Most areas will stay dry even though a cold front will drop into the region Thursday and Friday. A system is likely to move out of the Southwest and into the region this weekend, which should bring scattered showers to much of the region, helping winter wheat. Cold temperatures will follow the system though, which could be significantly cold. Models are still trying to decide that fate.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moving through Thursday and Friday will bring some rain to eastern areas while bringing a brief shot of some cooler air as well. But a system moving through early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region and temperatures are forecast to fall more significantly thereafter.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A system in the Gulf produced showers for southern areas recently, which may ease drought a little. More rain is needed farther north to keep the Mississippi River from falling back toward the record lows seen in October, which may occur this weekend and early next week with a system moving through.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain continues over southern areas while central areas have been very dry with temperatures near or above 100 F. The same pattern continues the next few days, which is unfavorable for most areas.

Dryness and heat in the Central will continue to overly stress developing soybeans and cause a need for replanting while wetness across the south will cause flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern will start to change this weekend as a system in the south shifts into central states. This will cause more typical wet season showers in central Brazil, though they may not be long-lasting. Heavy rain is still forecast to occur at times in the south.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers will move through the country over the next couple of weeks, bringing decent rainfall to much of the country's growing areas. The country is still recovering from drought and northwestern growing areas still have larger deficits, but most of the country has seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The constant bombardment of an incredibly active pattern across the continent continues into early next week. The pattern may change a bit next week with a focus farther north and in the Mediterranean, which would include cooler temperatures as well. If so, that would put some northern areas into dormancy. Most areas are in good shape for soil moisture, with some areas of excess. Smaller areas of limited soil moisture are found in Spain and the far southeast, but that is not a large area of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Areas of showers continue to move through the region at times. Many areas have seen good precipitation over the last few weeks, which has improved conditions for winter wheat establishment. Warm temperatures have allowed much of the region to continue developing roots and extended the season. Some cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend, but crops are likely to stay active for a while yet, especially across the south.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter crops continue to march toward dormancy in mostly good condition. More wintry precipitation is expected in the northeast, which the central growing areas are facing a run of drier weather heading into December.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Showers will continue sporadically the next few days, with most areas seeing little or none. Wheat and canola harvest have been finding mostly good conditions for their damaged crops. Showers may increase across the East this weekend into next week, which would be helpful for cotton and sorghum planting and early development, but dry soils are still a large concern for most areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday night-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.